Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability

NAPSNet 9 February 2012

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The DPRK: Uncertain but More Hopeful

NAPSNet Policy Forum - 7 February 2012

Shen Dingli writes that the new leadership in Pyongyang has to continue to strengthen Kim Jong-un’s power base, which doesn’t allow it to be either too hostile or receptive to the outside world. It also has to be politically correct and follow Kim Jong-il and Kim Il-sung’s Juche ideology, demonstrating self-reliance. Therefore, to quit the nuclear weapons program is a non-starter. While the DPRK has signaled its intent to return to the Six-Party Talks, this is, in Shen Dingli’s opinion, a tactical move, not a strategic commitment to denuclearization. "All parties involved in the talks should combine their legitimate needs with a realistic approach ... Unless other parties would relinquish their nuclear weapons or the benefit of a nuclear umbrella, demanding Pyongyang to rid its nuclear program without prior trust-building is wishful thinking.” In the meantime, in order to manage its shortage of resources, the DPRK has to keep bargaining with others and develop its economy—and this could bode well for engagement and stability.

Shen Dingli is a Professor and Executive Dean at Fudan University.

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NAPSNet 2 February 2012

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Nuclear and Conventional Extended Deterrence in a Northeast Asian Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone - Summary Report of the East Asia Nuclear Security Workshop

NAPSNet Special Report - 31 January 2012

This summary report is based on the proceedings and presentations given at the East Asia Nuclear Security workshop held on November 11, 2011 in Tokyo, Japan. The workshop aimed to evaluate the robustness of proposals to establish a nuclear weapons-free zone in Northeast Asia (NEA-NWFZ) and to identify pathways leading to its creation. The workshop was organized by the Nautilus Institute, the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation and Nautilus Australia – RMIT Global Studies, and co-hosted by the Asia Pacific Leadership Network. 

Papers and presentations given at the East Asia Nuclear Workshop are available here, along with the full agenda, participant list and a workshop photo gallery. 

This report was prepared by Binoy Kampmark, Peter Hayes and Richard Tanter.

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The Post Kim Jong-il Era and the 2013 Regime in South Korea

NAPSNet Policy Forum - 26 January 2012

Nak-chung Paik asks “Which will be the greater variable, the leadership change in North Korea or the 2013 regime change in South Korea?" Paik asserts that since the North Korean succession does not show signs of sparking an imminent political or social upheaval, South Korea, with upcoming elections, has the opportunity to engage North Korea, establish a peace agreement and perhaps eventually an inter-Korean confederation. The key, Paik writes, is the 2013 South Korean regime: "Will we content ourselves with the same old ruling forces who have changed face and succeeded in “differentiation from Lee Myung-bak,” or will we make the historic transition to a new epoch not only in the South but possibly shared by South and North?" 

Nak-chung Paik is the Editor of The Quarterly Changbi and Professor Emeritus of English Literature at Seoul National University.

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NAPSNet 26 January 2012

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REGIONAL RIVALRIES AND NUCLEAR RESPONSES - Volume II - The South Korean Case: A Nuclear Weapons Program Embedded in an Environment of Great Power Concerns

NAPSNet Special Report - 24 January 2012

This 1978 report by Bryan Jack is the second volume of a three part report that considers the possible role of nuclear weapons that might be possessed by new nuclear powers in three key regions-the Arabian Sea, Northeast Asia and the South China Sea. This volume focuses on China, Korea and Japan and the particular circumstances facing each country, including: what might influence the decision to acquire nuclear weapons, the kind of weapons systems that might be acquired, possible types of weapons deployment both for deterrence or actual use, the impact on regional security of weapons acquisition and the policies that might be adopted by states in the region and by the United States to deter acquisition or to mitigate the consequences if acquired. 

This report was released to the Nautilus Institute under the US Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). See the Institute's FOIA Global Disclosure Project page to read more chronologies, histories and reports released to Nautilus.

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North Korea’s Transition: Do Not Let Contingencies Distract from Realities

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspecting the planned construction site of the Pyongyang Folk Park. Released by the Korean Central News Agency 12 January 2012.

NAPSNet Policy Forum - 19 January 2012

John Delury and Chung-in Moon state that a near-term crisis in North Korea is unlikely for the simple reason that the country’s political system is unified around the new face of North Korea, Kim Jong-un. However, in the medium to longer term, the new leadership is likely to face a dilemma: whether Kim Jong-un can enhance North Korea’s prosperity without undermining the source of its strength — its nuclear weapons program. Delury and Moon argue that "[t]he most prudent course for key regional players is to re-open or expand channels with Pyongyang. The better we know the new leadership, the better we can respond to events as they unfold." 

John Delury is an Assistant Professor of East Asian Studies at Yonsei University. Chung-in Moon is a Professor of Political Science at Yonsei University.

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NAPSNet 19 January 2012

Chinese Nuclear Strategic Policies, 1958-1972: The Impact of External Threats, International Politics, and Technology

NAPSNet Special Report - 17 January 2012

This 1973 report by W.W. Whiston is the first of a two-part analysis of Chinese nuclear policy and weapons options carried out as a part of the U.S. Air Force Project RAND's studies of the implications of Soviet and Chinese military policy and strategy for Air Force planning. It examines (1) internal political and ideological conflict, (2) alternative military strategies for coping with external versus internal threats, and (3) nuclear technological capabilities from 1958 to 1972. Whiston examines how the Mao-Liu divide impacted the military structure and organization and the newborn nuclear weapons program in the 1960s.

This report was released to the Nautilus Institute under the US Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). See the Institute's FOIA Global Disclosure Project page to read more chronologies, histories and reports released to Nautilus.

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Air Operations in the Taiwan Crisis of 1958

NAPSNet Special Report - 12 January 2012 

This report is one of a series of studies on air operations in international incidents, prepared by the USAF Historical Division Liaison Office at the request of the Directorate of Plans, Headquarters USAF.  This historical narrative, by Jacob Van Staaveren, is based on primary source materials available in 1960--messages and correspondence--and on histories from many levels of the Air Force, including units, commands, and the Air Staff. As Staaveren's report demonstrates, the crisis in 1958 provided a test of American military planning concepts. Occurring in the Pacific almost simultaneously with the Lebanon crisis of July-August 1958, it created certain planning, operational and logistical problems that had not been anticipated.

This report was released to the Nautilus Institute under the US Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). See the Institute's FOIA Global Disclosure Project page to read more chronologies, histories and reports released to Nautilus.

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NAPSNet 12 January 2012

The DPRK Interregnum: Window of Opportunity for the International Community

Kim Jong-un walks alongside the body of his late father during last month's funeral procession. Source: AP

NAPSNet Policy Forum - 10 January 2012

Victor Hsu argues that the post funeral interregnum in the DPRK should be seen as a window of opportunity for moving North Korea's relationships in a constructive direction. To do this, Hsu suggests that the international community network and create a coordinated engagement plan that avoids duplication, maximizes the increasingly scarce resources among traditional donors and gathers lessons learned for future engagement. Donors could facilitate this work by supporting civil society knowledge-sharing efforts with the DPRK, which is more sustainable and less susceptible to the vicissitudes of inter-state relations.  

Victor Hsu is a Visiting Professor at the Korea Development Institute School of Public Policy and Management.

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Military Aspects of a Study of the Implications of a Communist Chinese Nuclear Capability

NAPSNet Special Report - 5 January 2012

In this 1963 report B.F. Jaeger and M. Weiner analyze Chinese nuclear capabilities under three different cross-strait conflict scenarios. The three scenarios provide an assessment of the possible military consequences of China’s possession of a modest nuclear arsenal, and give some indication of the magnitude of the risks China might face in a military confrontation with the United States over Taiwan.

This report was released to the Nautilus Institute under the US Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). See the Institute's FOIA Global Disclosure Project page to read more chronologies, histories and reports released to Nautilus.

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NAPSNet 05 January 2012

A Proposal for a Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone in Northeast Asia

NAPSNet Special Report - 3 January 2012

Morton Halperin notes that, as the Six-Party talks aimed at eliminating North Korea’s nuclear program remain stalled, a fresh approach incorporating the concept of a nuclear weapons-free zone in Northeast Asia should be considered as a way of ensuring peace and security in the region.  

Morton H. Halperin served four US presidents and is currently a Senior Adviser at the Open Society Foundation.

This essay is based on a report presented at the East Asia Nuclear Security Workshop in Tokyo, Japan, on Nov. 11, 2011.

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NAPSNet 29 December 2011

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Nothing Succeeds Like Succession: Chinese Language Perspectives on Kim Jong-Un’s Transition to Power

NAPSNet Policy Forum - 23 December 2011

Photo: AP

Roger Cavazos writes, “The breathtakingly short timeline of announcement of Kim Jong-Il’s death, DPRK announcing Kim Jong-Un as the successor, China affirming and also providing their guidance to 'maintain stability on the peninsula' and the DPRK to responding via Chinese-language press on KCNA indicates that while the specific timing may have been a surprise, the basic outline of the leadership transition had been worked out long ago...For the sake of the Korean people on both sides of the DMZ and regional stability, all sides should use the early indicators of a relatively calm environment to engage in discussions, clarify intentions, and plan basic outlines of responses if things do not continue on a positive trend beyond the short term.”

Roger Cavazos is a Nautilus Institute Associate and consultant on North-East Asia.

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The Party as the Kingmaker: The Death of Kim Jong Il and its Consequences for North Korea

NAPSNet Policy Forum - 21 December 2011

A picture taken December 13, 2011 during one of Kim Jong Il's last field guidance trips. It shows a banner reading: Let's defend the Central Committee with Great Leader Kim Jong Il at its top with our lives!

Ruediger Frank writes, “The big question now is will the North Korean elite and population accept the Central Committee’s decision, and will they welcome Kim Jong Un as the new leader? History teaches us that things do not always proceed according to plan or conventional wisdom. We cannot exclude the possibility of ambitious individuals testing the opportunities...There are powerful individuals like Choe Yong Rim, Prime Minister; Kim Young Nam, Head of State; Jang Song Thaek, Kim Jong Il’s brother-in-law and alternate member of the Politburo, and his wife and Kim Jong Il’s sister Kim Kyong Hui who is a regular Politburo member and a General...Will they back up Kim Jong Un, or try to manipulate and sideline him?”

Ruediger Frank a Professor of East Asian Economy and Society, University of Vienna and Adjunct Professor, Korea University and the University of North Korean Studies.

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NAPSNet 22 December 2011

Kim Jong Il’s Death Suggests Continuity Plus Opportunity to Engage

Photo: Reuters

NAPSNet Policy Forum - 19 December 2011

Peter Hayes, Scott Bruce, and David von Hippel of the Nautilus Institute, write, “Ironically, Kim Jong Il’s death may make Korea the land of the morning calm for at least a year, during which political transitions will also occur in China, South Korea, Japan, Russia, and the United States... Unless Kim Jong Un throws the nuclear strategy out the window and starts again, the outlines of the engagement agenda are already clear—send the North Koreans energy and food aid to meet both short-term humanitarian and medium/long-term development needs, help them build a safe small light water reactor, and bring them into an international enrichment consortium that would lead them to reveal the sum total of their enrichment program."

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NAPSNet 15 December 2011

ADAPTNet 13 December 2011

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The Kanto Plain Consolidation Plan: A Case Study of Military Cost Reduction

NAPSNet Special Report - 13 December 2011

This study describes the political and economic conditions that impacted the U.S. Air Force basing posture in Tokyo, Japan in early 1970 and the plan that was developed to reduce these impacts. The main theme explains the formulation and successful implementation of this plan that was designed to preserve mission capability at reduced cost by consolidating widely scattered activities away from metropolitan Tokyo by fiscal year 1975. John G. McKay writes, "Perhaps this case study of a successful USAF plan and program will serve some useful purpose in future U.S. force posturing in that it records the methodology employed for achieving a significant cost-savings through dedicated and perserving efforts in effective resource management." 

This report was released to the Nautilus Institute under the US Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). See the Institute's FOIA Global Disclosure Project page to read more chronologies, histories and reports released to Nautilus.

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A Code of Conduct for the South China Sea: What Should It Contain?

NAPSNet Policy Forum - 8 December 2011

Mark Valencia, Nautilus Institute Associate and NARP Research Associate, explores options for the upcoming ASEAN and China negotiations concerning a Code of Conduct (CoC) to govern activities in the South China Sea. There are hopes that a Code can be presented and approved at the ASEAN-China 2012 summit, but the key elements have yet to be decided. Valencia contends that the CoC must include an agreement as to 1) where, to whom, and to what the Code applies, 2) how it addresses non-state actors and Taiwan, and 3) the scope of the Code—which should broad, and address resource exploration and exploitation, marine scientific research, and military activities. 

Mark Valencia is a Nautilus Institute Associate and NARP Research Associate. 

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NAPSNet 08 December 2011

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The Uses and Limitations of Nuclear Deterrence in Asia

NAPSNet Special Report - 6 December 2011

In this 1964 report Wolf explores US extended nuclear deterrence in China, Japan, and South Korea as well as the impact it could have in Asian countries then “under Communist threat”. Wolf uses two frameworks to assess the effectiveness of US conventional military and nuclear options in Asia: “broad-deterrence” and “narrow-deterrence” options. Wolf uses these two views to consider the provocation threshold, military and political pressures and alternative actions at play in each situation. Wolf writes, “In Asia, we are left with a wide range of current and potential undeterred conflicts.  Although nuclear deterrence is more operative and effective than is often believed, its limitations are manifest not only in the Vietnamese and Laos cases, but in the unambiguous Indonesian confrontation with Malaysia and in the case of various forms of possible Chinese aggression against India or Burma.  It is in this area of undeterred conflicts where our greatest need for improvements in programs and policies lie.”

This report was released to the Nautilus Institute under the US Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). See the Institute's FOIA Global Disclosure Project page to read more chronologies, histories and reports released to Nautilus.

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Targeting the Soviet Army along the Sino-Soviet Border

NAPSNet Special Report - 1 December 2011

In this 1978 report Joseph V. Braddock, Douglas N. Beatty, William P. Schneider and Raymond J. Milesfsky outline a series of U.S. military investigations to define aspects of targeting the Soviet armed forces located in Eastern Europe and on the eastern border facing China and in Mongolia. The authors state, “The Soviets maintain a qualitative superiority in mobility, nuclear and conventional fire support, tactical air support, air and ballistic defense capability, and logistic support and supply procedures.  The Chinese have the quantitative advantage of manpower in proximity to the borders and the strategic vulnerability of Soviet logistics.  Thus it is with these thoughts in mind that targeting the Soviet Army in the East, and thereby upsetting the balance of power, shows potential as a deterrence option.” 

This report was released to the Nautilus Institute under the US Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). See the Institute's FOIA Global Disclosure Project page to read more chronologies, histories and reports released to Nautilus.

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NAPSNet 1 December 2011

• DETERRENCE: The amateur strategist, intuitive deterrence theories and the politics of the nuclear arms race

• DPRK: Anthracite export to China suspended temporarily

• CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: Converging and conflicting interests in adaptation to environmental change in central Vietnam

• ENERGY SECURITY: Small reactors planned for Zhangzhou

• GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: Osaka voters reject status quo of Japan’s main parties

• AUSTRAL SECURITY: China reproaches Australia over strengthened US defence ties

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South Korea’s Plans for Tidal Power: When a “Green” Solution Creates More Problems

NAPSNet Special Report - 29 November 2011

South Korea’s plans for ocean energy generation, showing capacities of tidal power plants. © Ko, Schubert, and Hester

Yekang Ko and Derek K. Schubert respond to “Case Study of Green Economy Policies: Korea” by Sun-Jin Yun and Myungrae Cho (Nautilus Institute Special Report, September 13, 2011). Yun and Cho argue that the center of South Korea’s Green Growth clearly favors economic growth, national industrial competitiveness, and an energy portfolio emphasizing nuclear power, but puts little effort toward promoting energy democracy and justice for decentralized renewable energy systems and local communities. As a complementary study to Yun and Cho’s report, the authors introduce a fierce controversy between large-scale tidal power and the local efforts toward preserving wetlands and fisheries in Incheon, South Korea.

Yekang Ko is a Ph.D. candidate in Environmental Planning at UC Berkeley and Derek K. Schubert is a Landscape Architect at John Northmore Roberts & Associates and President of SAVE International.

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The 2012 Nuclear Security Summit: Opportunities and Challenges

NAPSNet Policy Forum - 22 November 2011

Duyeon Kim writes, “There are clear ways in which Seoul can capitalize on its strengths to flavor the 2012 [Nuclear Security Summit] with a “Korean twist” as it maintains depth on key substantive issues that ensure the security of nuclear materials, parts, and facilities…The challenge lies in clearly demonstrating that the benefits outweigh the costs, and that states would have a national interest in further investing their political capital in nuclear security."

Duyeon Kim is the Deputy Director of Non-Proliferation at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.

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NAPSNet 22 November 2011

• DETERRENCE: Anti-nuclear Rudd urged US to keep arsenal for deterrence

• CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTION: Sustainable adaptation: An oxymoron? 

• DPRK: S. Korea to give NK natural gas plant for pipeline: Source

• ENERGY SECURITY: Evaluating energy security performance from 1990 to 2010 for eighteen countries

• GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL SOCIETY: S. Korea, China, Japan reaffirm commitment to resolving NK nuclear standoff

• AUSTRAL SECURITY: 2500 US marines on Australian soil to increase defence ties

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NAPSNet 17 November 2011