Global Dimensions of Energy Growth Projections
in Northeast Asia
Abstract
The requirements for energy services to fuel development in Northeast Asia
has been growing rapidly in the last two decades. This has translated into
a rapid increase in the rate of fossil fuel use, a trend that is expected
to continue over the next two decades. Northeast Asia's shares of both global
fossil fuel use and world carbon dioxide emissions are expected to continue
to rise; nearly a third of the growth in annual carbon dioxide emissions
through 2010 are projected to come from the region. This growth in fuel
use has the potential to exacerbate global problems with regional consequences,
including climate change and marine pollution. Switching to alternative
low-carbon and no-carbon energy sources and energy efficiency measures show
the best potential to reduce carbon dioxide emissions at low (sometimes
negative) costs, and also help to reduce emissions of acid gases. Options
for regional cooperation to help to reduce global impacts of energy use
in the region are discussed.
Executive Summary
The countries of Northeast Asia currently produce somewhat under 20 percent
of total world carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy-sector
activities. This fraction is projected to rise to 23 percent by 2010, meaning
that about one-third of the global growth in CO2 emissions will
be in the Northeast Asia region. This projected growth in emissions will
be brought by explosive growth in fuels use, particularly in China and the
Koreas. In addition, the limits to domestic oil resources in China and the
rest of the region means that imports of oil from outside Asia, principally
from the Middle East, will grow substantially in the near future.
The combination of these issues present potentially massive environmental
problems for the globe, the region, and the countries of the region. Growth
in greenhouse gas emissions will eventually lead to a changed climate, which
could have a variety of ecological, economic, and social impacts. Increased
shipping of crude oil and refined products will make already crowded sea
lanes in the region even more crowded, will increase the magnitude of accidental
and routine spills, and may spur additional conflict over maritime resources.
The potential impacts of changing climate and increasing oil shipping on
the region will likely include:
- Changes in average temperatures. Average temperatures will
likely rise in most areas of the region, although changes will vary considerably
from place to place and from season to season. Temperature increases are
likely to be most pronounced in inland areas, in the northern parts of the
region, and in the late fall and early winter.
- Rising sea levels and related impacts are likely to affect
the densely populated coastal plains of the region the most. A few centimeters
of sea level rise can cause many meters of inundation of coastal land, and
can increase the salinity of estuaries and groundwater. In addition, the
impacts of climate change-induced sea level rise will exacerbate existing
problems of land subsidence (due, for example, to excessive groundwater
pumping) that exist in many places in the region.
- Changes in precipitation and in the frequency and severity of storms
will put further stress on an already overburdened emergency response system
in the region. High population densities and existing environmental problems
make the region more vulnerable to storms and storm-related flooding.
- Changes in the distribution of ecosystems will result in a
decrease in biodiversity, and a decrease in the availability of the environmental
services that ecosystems provide. Desertification could be accelerated in
some areas, and the health of forest will likely be adversely affected.
- Increased oil shipping increases the probability of greater routine
and catastrophic oil spills, which cause damage to marine life (including
species critical to food supply and export earnings).
- Increased tanker traffic and increased competition for imported
oil may strain political relations between neighboring countries of
the region.
In addition to these changes, climate change impacts may interact with the
impacts of acid rain to cause additional problems. For example, forests
already under stress by acid precipitation will have even more difficulty
adjusting to the impacts of climate change.
A number of different options exist for reducing greenhouse gas emissions
in the countries of the region. Focusing on the energy sector, the key classes
of options are fuel-switching, energy efficiency measures, and carbon capture
and sequestration. Fuel-switching measures involve changing from consumption
of a higher-carbon fuel to a low- or no-carbon fuel. Examples are switching
from coal or oil products to natural gas or to fuels derived from biomass,
or to hydro-, solar-, wind-, or nuclear-generated electricity. Fuel-switching
measures are available for virtually all economic sectors. Energy efficiency
measures allow the delivery of an energy service (for example, a
cooked meal, a kilometer of travel, or a tonne of steel production) with
less fuel than was required before the efficiency measure was implemented.
Energy efficiency measures are also applicable in virtually all economic
sectors. Both fuel-switching and energy-efficiency measures are attractive
means of concurrently reducing both CO2 and SOx/NOx
(oxides of sulfur and nitrogen) emissions at affordable (sometimes
negative) costs.
Carbon dioxide capture and sequestration can be accomplished in a number
of ways. The most commonly proposed methods of capture focus on the reaction
of CO2 with a chemical of some type followed by releasing the
CO2 into storage (in geological formations, saline groundwater,
or the deep ocean) and regenerating the chemical reactant. These methods
are generally costly, are practical only for large installations (power
plants, for example) and may result in increases in SOx and NOx
emissions. Methods of converting carbon-rich fuels such as coal into low-carbon
gases are under development, and could produce low-carbon fuels for energy
uses in the industrial, commercial, and residential sectors as well as the
utility sector.
Implementing even the most attractive CO2-reduction measures
in the countries of the region will require that more developed nations
(the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Chinese Taipei, for example)
help to provide financing, technology, and training to the rapidly growing
developing nations of the region (China, and potentially North Korea and
Mongolia). The goal of this cooperation should be to assist the developing
nations in building their energy sector "right the first time",
that is, in an environmentally sustainable fashion. Some of the different
possibilities for collaboration between the countries include:
- Technology transfer, which can be facilitated through promotion
of joint ventures and licensing agreements, providing information and general
training to government officials, provide specific information and training
to local actors, providing funding for demonstration projects, and supporting
the formation and strengthening of key government agencies.
- Provide ongoing assistance in planning for development in disciplines
including urban planning, transport planning, energy planning, environmental
restoration and conservation, pollution control, telecommunications, and
industrial infrastructure.
- Assist with intra-regional planning for disaster prevention/response,
and maintenance of ecosystems
- Promote agreements on trade policies that will assure the orderly
sharing of resources such as sea lanes and ensure that all of the countries
of the region have equal and open access to fuels markets.
Specific undertakings that the United States and Japan could use to catalyze
regional collaborations like those noted above include:
- Create a clearinghouse for summary and detailed information
on GHG reduction measures.
- Create (or strengthen) a trade liaison to promote the transfer
of appropriate technologies.
- Lead by example in accepting and enforcing goals of emission
reduction.
- Promote and assist in applications that demonstrate promising technologies
- Strengthen support for basic and applied research on energy
efficiency and renewable technologies.
Read the complete version of "Global Dimensions of Energy Growth Projections in Northeast Asia"
Commissioned by The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development
Energy, Security and Environment in Northeast Asia Project (esena@nautilus.org)
Ken Wilkening, Program Officer
125 University Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94710-1616 USA
(510) 204-9296 * Fax (510) 204-9298 * Web: http://www.nautilus.org
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