NORTHEAST ASIA PEACE AND SECURITY NETWORK DAILY REPORT FOR February 14, 1996 from Berkeley, California, USA This report is distributed to e-mail participants of the NAPS Network. Please send news items or contributions to the discussion section to Editor, npr@igc.apc.org Conventions for readers and a list of acronyms and abbreviations are sent to all recipients weekly. In today's Report: I. United States II. Republic of Korea III. Document Available I. United States A. Government Statements 1. Perry Comments on China, Regional Security Ties Bill Gertz reported in the Washington Times ("PERRY CALLS ON CHINA TO EARN US TRUST", A1, 2/14/96) and the New York Times carried an Associated Press report ("US IS SEEKING FORUM TO CALM ASIA TENSIONS", Washington, A6, 2/14/96) on Secretary of Defense William Perry's address at the National Defense University. Perry stated that "our policy accepts China at its word when it says it wants to become a responsible world power. But China sends quite the opposite message when it conducts missile tests and large military maneuvers off Taiwan, when it exports nuclear-weapons technology or abuses human rights. It is time for China to start sending the right message." Perry also called on Asia Pacific defense leaders "to begin forming our own web of security ties" through regular meetings that would "build trust and understanding and cooperation" and avert military crises. He offered the Partnership for Peace forum as a model. 2. Mondale on Japan-US Summit Preparations James Morrison reported in the Washington Times ("SUMMIT PLANNING", A12, 2/14/96) on the Clinton-Hashimoto "presummit summit" in Santa Monica February 23 and US Ambassador Walter Mondale's efforts "behind the scenes in Tokyo in hopes of making the main event in April a success." On the February 23 meeting, Mondale stated that the two leaders "will get into how to move ahead on the security declaration [to be issued in April] and Okinawa. There will be a general discussion of trade, but this will not be a negotiating meeting." B. Media 1. Team Spirit Cancellation Yeom Yoon-Jeong reported for Reuters ("SOUTH KOREA, US CANCEL WAR GAMES IN OVERTURE TO NORTH", Seoul, 2/14/96) on the ROK and US cancellation Wednesday of 1996 Team Spirit exercises. ROK Foreign Ministry spokesman Suh Dae Won stated that Seoul and Washington made the decision "to create a positive atmosphere in the Korean peninsula and promote confidence needed to continue implementing the Geneva agreement." He added that the decision "will have no significant impact" on force readiness. 2. DPRK Defection Kevin Sullivan reported in the Washington Post ("MISSING EX-WIFE ADDS TO NORTH KOREAN LEADER'S WOES", Tokyo, A17, 2/14/96) and Nicholas Kristof reported in the New York Times ("APPARENT DEFECTION FROM NORTH KOREA THAT HURTS TO THE HEART", Tokyo, A7, 2/14/96) on the disappearance and presumed defection of Sung Hye Rim, former wife of Kim Jong Il and mother of Kim's eldest son, Kim Jong Nam. Seoul confirmed that Sung is in hiding, and Kristof noted that "intelligence officials left a strong impression that she is being looked after by a Western intelligence agency." An unidentified ROK official stated that Sung and three other women would arrive in the ROK from an unnamed Western nation later this year. 3. Sino-US Relations Robert Greenberger reported in the Wall Street Journal ("US STILL STUDIES HOW TO PUNISH CHINA FOR ITS NUCLEAR-DATA SALES TO PAKISTAN", Washington, A4, 2/14/96) that "divided Clinton cabinet officers weren't able to reach a decision on how to punish China for selling nuclear technology to Pakistan without rupturing Sino-US trade ties." The Clinton Administration is considering ways "to impose less-sweeping and more targeted penalties" to avoid a crisis in bilateral relations. Despite PRC assertions that its nuclear cooperation with Pakistan is "prudent" and "safe," US officials remain "highly skeptical" of the transfers. 4. Taiwan Dispute Steven Mufson reported in the Washington Post ("CHINA MASSES TROOPS ON COAST NEAR TAIWAN", Beijing, A16, 2/14/96) on the massing of PRC troops for military exercises and Beijing's dismissal of Taipei's "conciliatory gesture" in announcing the creation of a special cabinet council charged with "easing" cross-Strait relations. Beijing warned that Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui is playing "children's games" with the lives of Taiwan's inhabitants. Marcus Brauchli reported in the Wall Street Journal ("TAIWAN FEARS A MISCALCULATION BY CHINA FORCES", Taipei, A10, 2/14/96) on Taiwan Foreign Minister Fredrick Chien's statement that "this is a very critical moment" for regional stability. Chien also warned that PRC "conservatives in ascendancy" have misunderstood democratic reform in Taiwan and the US role in the region. Chien hailed US efforts to diffuse tensions. II. Republic of Korea A. Government Statements 1. Tokdo Dispute A Defense Ministry spokesman said that the ROK would soon stage a planned military exercise around the disputed islet of Tokdo, but that the exact date for the maneuvers has not been set. The spokesman pointed out that the joint Navy-Air Force drill is routinely held every three months and is to be held before March this year regardless of the territorial dispute with Japan. But a ministry official said that the exercise may be held as early as this week. He said that the ministry had previously decided to postpone the drill until after the dispute calmed down, but decided to push ahead "in consideration of the aggravating [sic] popular sentiment" against Tokyo's claim to the islet. (Korea Herald, Lee Sung-yul, "S. KOREA TO STAGE MILITARY EXERCISES AROUND TOKTO," Seoul, 1, 2/13/96). [See also Korea Times, "ROK NAVY, AIR FORCE TO CONDUCT JOINT EXERCISE ON EAST SEA BEFORE END OF MARCH," Seoul, 3, 2/13/96]. ROK Ambassador to Japan Kim Tae-zhee said that there can be no dispute over the ROK sovereignty over Tokdo island, stating that "Tokdo is part of our proper territory and that's the end of the story." He said that he will convey Seoul's position on the issue to Japanese Foreign Minister Yukihiko Ikeda when he returns to Tokyo today after attending a meeting in Seoul for ROK diplomatic personnel. After meeting with Foreign Minister Gong Ro-myung, Kim said that the ROK does not feel pressure on the issue, but will take strong action if Japan tries to push its claim. (Korea Herald, "AMB. KIM REFUTES TOKYO CLAIM," Seoul, 1, 2/13/96). [See also Korea Times, "AMB. KIM RETURNS TO JAPAN TODAY TO MEET FOREIGN MIN. IKEDA ON TOK-DO," Seoul, 2, 2/13/96]. Japan's Tokyo Shimbun quoted a government source as saying that the mounting dispute between Seoul and Tokyo over Tokdo islet is likely to get in the way of a scheduled summit meeting between ROK President Kim Young-sam and Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto in Thailand next month. (Korea Herald, Yonhap, "ISLET ROW MAY BALK SUMMIT OF KIM-HASHIMOTO," Tokyo, 1, 2/13/96). An ROK Foreign Ministry official said that Seoul will draw a 200- nautical mile exclusive economic zone after seeing how Japan deals with the issue of the Tokdo islets when it decides on the boundaries of its zone later this week. An ROK official predicted that Tokyo will not mention Tokdo when drawing its zone, but said that if it does, Seoul may make Tokdo a base point for drawing its own zone. Another official said that it may take as long as ten years for the two countries to complete negotiations on the borders for their respective economic zones. (Korea Herald, "SEOUL TO DRAW EEZ LINE AFTER TOKYO'S DECISION," Seoul, 1, 2/14/96). [See also Korea Times, Son Key-young, "SEOUL, TOKYO LIKELY TO CIRCUMVENT TOK-DO AS BASELINE FOR EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE," Seoul, 2, 2/14/96]. The National Assembly's Unification and Foreign Affairs Committee unanimously adopted a resolution denouncing Japan's claim to the islet of Tokdo in the East Sea. The resolution called on the government to take stern action on the matter. Earlier, Foreign Minister Gong Ro-myung told the committee that the issue "cannot be part of an agenda of diplomatic negotiation between Seoul and Tokyo." He also pledged that the ROK will go ahead with its plan to build marine facilities on the island. He further promised that the government will take all available steps to prevent Japan's declaration of an exclusive economic zone from infringing on Seoul's interests. Lawmakers called on the government to exert efforts to win international support for its position in the dispute. (Korea Times, "ASSEMBLY ADOPTS RESOLUTION AGAINST JAPAN," Seoul, 2, 2/14/96). [See also Korea Herald, "LAWMAKERS CALL FOR JAPAN'S APOLOGY OVER TOKTO," Seoul, 2, 2/14/96]. President Kim Young-sam placed a telephone call to the commander of the Tokdo island garrison, expressing his appreciation for the service of the 34-member contingent of marine police. "I hope you will pride yourselves on safeguarding a part of national territory that has become the focus of the people's attention," Kim was quoted as saying. (Korea Herald, "KIM PLACES TELEPHONE CALL TO TOKTO GARRISON COMMANDER," Seoul, 3, 2/14/96). 2. Major to Visit Seoul British Prime Minister John Major will visit the ROK March 4-5 for summit talks with President Kim Young-sam, Chong Wa Dae announced. Presidential spokesman Yoon Yeo-joon said that Kim and Major will exchange views of regional and international affairs and ways to strengthen bilateral ties between their countries. Included in the agenda will be the European Union's participation in the project to provide the DPRK with light-water nuclear reactors and the ROK's bid to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and to host the 2002 World Cup Soccer Finals. (Korea Herald, "JOHN MAJOR TO VISIT KOREA MARCH 4-5," Seoul, 1, 2/13/96). [See also Korea Times, "BRITISH PM MAJOR TO VISIT HERE MARCH 4 FOR SUMMIT WITH KIM," Seoul, 1, 2/13/96]. 3. US-DPRK Relations An ROK government source confirmed that US State Department DPRK desk officer Kenneth Quinones plans to make an informal visit to Pyongyang sometime this week, to coincide with Kim Jong-il's 54th birthday on Friday, February 16. The source noted that the timing gives the visit symbolic meaning of improving ties between the US and the DPRK. The source speculated that Quinones will discuss such issues as rice aid, the exchange of liaison offices, and provision of light-water nuclear reactors. (Korea Times, Yonhap, "STATE DEPT. STAFFER TO MAKE UNOFFICIAL VISIT TO NK SOON," Seoul, 1, 2/13/96). [See also Korea Herald, "U.S. OFFICIAL IN P'YANG TO DISCUSS N-FUEL," Seoul, 2, 2/13/96]. 4. German-DPRK Relations New ROK Ambassador to Germany Hong Soon-young said that Bonn has no plans to establish diplomatic relations with the DPRK, maintaining that Pyongyang should first improve human rights and refrain from exporting missiles and supporting international terrorism. He said that Germany may consider improving ties if the DPRK's relations with the United States and Japan show progress, however. Hong said that the ROK stands to learn more valuable lessons for reunification from the gradual process of European integration than from the sudden experience of German reunification. (Korea Herald, "GERMANY NOT CONSIDERING TIES WITH N.K.: AMB. HONG," Seoul, 2, 2/13/96). [See also Korea Times, "PHASED UNIFICATION LIKE EUROPEAN INTEGRATION DESIRABLE," Seoul, 2, 2/13/96]. 5. Mubarak to Act as Go-Between Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak hopes to visit both the ROK and the DPRK sometime in the first half of this year to contribute to easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula and to creating an atmosphere conducive to Korean reunification, a diplomatic source disclosed. At present, negotiations for the visit are underway between Seoul and Cairo, the source said. (Korea Times, Yonhap, "MUBARAK PLANS TO VISIT SEOUL, P'YANG," Seoul, 2, 2/13/96). 6. Implementation of Nuclear Accord Japan's Kyodo News Service reported that the United States plans to reorganize the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) to include more countries, such as the European Union, in a bid to secure stable sources of funds for providing heavy oil to the DPRK. The report quoted a Washington official as saying that the US has no plans yet to ask Japan for any more than the $12 million US which Tokyo has already agreed to contribute toward the oil supply. (Korea Herald, Yonhap, "U.S. TO REORGANIZE KEDO TO INCLUDE EU," Tokyo, 2, 2/13/96). [See also Korea Times, Yonhap, "KEDO CHANGE," Tokyo, 2, 2/13/96]. 7. DPRK-Russia Relations Russian President Boris Yeltsin sent a congratulatory message to DPRK leader Kim Jong-il on his upcoming birthday, Naewoo Press quoted a DPRK broadcast as reporting. Yeltsin assured Kim that friendly and cooperative relations between Pyongyang and Moscow will develop anew in a way that will be conducive to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. (Korea Times, "YELTSIN'S CELEBRATION," Seoul, 2, 2/13/96). 8. DPRK Defections The Agency for National Security Planning confirmed a report that Kim Jong-il's former wife, Sung Hye-rim, is believed to be in hiding in the West along with her sister Hye-rang and the latter's daughter, Lee Nam-ok. Sung, the mother of Kim Jong-il's eldest son Jong-nam, left the Moscow apartment where she had lived since 1983 for Switzerland in late January and subsequently disappeared from a Geneva villa where she and her companions had been staying. They are believed to be seeking asylum in a third country. The Agency also confirmed the previously undisclosed defection to Seoul of Sung Hye-rang's other son Lee Han-young. (Korea Herald, "EX-WIFE OF N.K. LEADER DEFECTS TO WEST: NSP," Seoul, 1, 2/14/96). [See also Korea Times, "'KIM JONG-IL'S MISTRESS SEEKING ASYLUM'," Seoul, 1, 2/14/96] B. Media 1. Tokdo Dispute The Korea-Japan Parliamentarian's Union blasted Japanese Foreign Minister Yukihiko Ikeda for arguing for Japan's sovereignty over the disputed Tokdo islet in the East Sea. "Minister Ikeda's comments are of no help to future-oriented Korea-Japan relations that we are pursuing," a statement released by the group said, adding that Tokyo must be held "completely responsible" for the worsening in bilateral relations. (Korea Times, "IKEDA BLASTED," Seoul, 2, 2/13/96). Citizen's groups continued to stage nationwide protests to Japan's claim of sovereignty over Tokdo on Monday, as about 300 protestors burned an effigy of Japanese Foreign Minister Yukihiko Ikeda and a Japanese flag in Seoul's Tapkol [Pagoda] Park. Meanwhile, Chonkuk Yonhap, the National Alliance for National Unification and Democracy, delivered a letter of protest to the Japanese Embassy. (Korea Times, "ANTI-JAPANESE RALLIES SPREADING NATIONWIDE OVER TOK-DO ISLET ISSUE," Seoul, 3, 2/13/96). An editorial in the Korea Times ("ABSURD JAPANESE CLAIM TO TOK-DO," Seoul, 6, 2/13/96) expressed dumbfoundedness over Japan's "absolutely unacceptable challenge to South Korean territorial sovereignty over Tok-do." The Times argued that, since the end of World War II, Japan has consistently glossed over its atrocities committed during its colonial rule of Korea, and termed the claim to Tokdo "just another in this chain of injustices." The Times called on the ROK government to continue to assert its sovereignty over the area regardless of any "verbal provocations" from Tokyo. "At the same time, we must strongly resolve to chastise provocative action, [sic] if [Japan] seeks to violate our rights." An editorial in the Korea Herald ("TOKTO ISLAND DISPUTE," Seoul, 6, 2/13/96) said that the strong reaction of the ROK government and people to Japan's claim to sovereignty over Tokdo is understandable "because they sense an omen of the revival of nasty imperialist hegemonism of Japan which had imposed many atrocities and undue claims upon its weaker neighbors through the end of World War II." Calling on both the ROK and Japan to "undertake a contest of logic rather than allowing too much ill blood to flow by means of fiery rhetoric," the Herald nonetheless termed Japan's claim "untenable." A group of political science majors at Seoul National University announced plans to hold a seminar on the ROK's claim to sovereignty over Tokdo islet during a visit there. The group, known as the "Tokdo Research Society" will invite Japanese students at Seoul National to join the discussion. The head of the group, Kim Su-ho, said that Japan's claim to the island demonstrates the continued existence of imperialistic attitudes in that country, and he criticized the government for inadequate defense preparations on the dispute rocks. Meanwhile, residents of Ullung-do Island decided to hold a shipboard demonstration around Tokdo. Some civic groups are also pushing for a boycott of Japanese goods. (Korea Times, "SNU STUDENTS TO HOLD 'TOK-DO' SEMINAR' ON BOAT DURING VISIT TO KOREAN ISLET," Seoul, 3, 2/14/96). [See also Korea Herald, "ANTI-JAPANESE PROTEST ENTERS 4TH STRAIGHT DAY OVER TOKTO CLAIM," Seoul, 3, 2/14/96]. A Russian radio broadcast on Monday supported the ROK position on the dispute over Tokdo, arguing that the islet is located much closer to the ROK than to Japan, the Naewoo Press reported. Radio Beijing meanwhile reported that the islet was recorded as part of the territory of the ancient Korean kingdom of Silla in 512 and that Japan recognized it as Korean territory in 1667. (Korea Herald, Yonhap, "MOSCOW RADIO SUPPORTS SEOUL IN KOREA-JAPAN DISPUTE OVER TOKTO," Seoul, 3, 2/14/96). 2. Repatriation of ROK Crew Kang Young-hoon, president of the ROK National Red Cross, broadcast a message to his DPRK counterpart, Lee Sung-ho, calling for the repatriation of the crew of the ROK vessel Taeyoung 707. Pyongyang maintained in a broadcast on January 28 that 4 crew members of the vessel went to the DPRK voluntarily, but it did not disclose the whereabouts of 4 others. (Korea Herald, "KNRC URGES N. KOREA TO REPATRIATE CREW MEMBERS OF TAEYOUNG," Seoul, 3, 2/13/96). 3. DPRK Defectors A group of three recent defectors from the DPRK diplomatic mission to Zambia -- Hyon Sung-il, Choi Soo-bong, and Cha Song-geun -- held a press conference and speculated that Kim Il-sung will most likely formally assume the post of president of the state and general- secretary of the Workers' Party after the second anniversary of his father's death in July. "Kim Jong-il has long been in control of almost all state affairs, even before his father's death in 1994, so an official function for his succession to power is a mere formality," Hyon said. Hyon also said that Kim is instituting "revolutionizing education" to prevent other parties and government leaders from gaining political influence. He also said that many DPRK citizens are dissatisfied with Kim's indifference to the national economy, complaining that he has tried to win the support of party and government leaders through expensive gifts while neglecting the public welfare. The defectors also reported that the DPRK has recently ordered its foreign missions to dramatize the food situation in the DPRK to press for more foreign aid. Cha, a former intelligence agent, said that the Ministry of the People's Armed Forces set up a department to gather information on the ROK military and kidnap ROK military personnel. (Korea Herald, "KIM JONG-IL LIKELY TO ASSUME PRESIDENCY IN JULY: DEFECTORS," Seoul, 1, 3/14/96). [See also Korea Times, "KIM JL LIKELY TO ASSUME PRESIDENCY IN" [sic], Seoul, 1, 2/14/96]. An editorial in the Korea Times ("NK DEFECTOR'S ESCAPE ATTEMPT," Seoul, 6, 2/14/96) said that the recent attempt of a DPRK defector to return to the DPRK demonstrated the need for more concerted efforts to improve the lives of defectors. The Times called on the government to provide them with the necessary education and for businesses to cooperate in providing jobs or vocational education. The Times also urged civic organizations to show defectors how to become happy, productive citizens of a democratic, capitalistic society. 4. Team Spirit Military Exercise The "Team Spirit" joint US-ROK military exercise is likely to be canceled or reduced in size in the near future due to the changing political situation. Also many observers, even among military leaders, are beginning to question the effectiveness of the costly exercise. A senior Defense Ministry official said that Team Spirit could be replaced by a less costly "command post exercise or CPX simulation game." An Army colonel who has participated in five Team Spirit annual exercises said that its effectiveness is "much exaggerated." There are also reports that the ROK and the United States are at odds about cost-sharing for the exercise. However the allies are likely to continue to use the threat of resuming the exercise, which has been canceled three of the last four years, as a trump card in negotiations with the DPRK. (Korea Times, Oh Young-jin, "TEAM SPIRIT EXERCISE LIKELY TO BE TERMINATED OR REDUCED IN NEAR FUTURE," Seoul, 3, 2/14/96). 5. Food Aid for DPRK An editorial in the Korea Times ("PYONGYANG'S FOOD DIPLOMACY," Seoul, 6, 2/14/96) said that the DPRK "continues to bewilder the world with its volatile, inconsistent policy announcements." The Times particularly was surprised by the admission of a policy discord between the DPRK military and Foreign Ministry over the acceptance of foreign aid, and Pyongyang's announcement that it will continue to accept aid despite this. "Given that the military is the dominant force in the North, the Pyongyang official's statement may have represented a premeditated attempt to embarrass other sectors of the North Korean system with the foreign aid issue," the Times speculated. The Times argued that the ROK is not obligated to help the DPRK when the latter refuses to resume inter-Korean dialogue, but that the ROK should be prudent about linking such dialogue to international or third-country food programs. "As far as humanitarian assistance to North Koreans is concerned, South Koreans are obliged to take the lead in the international community, not become an obstacle to such assistance." C. Other Related Issues 1. Repatriation of Sakhalin Koreans The ROK National Red Cross announced that thirty-three elderly Korean residents of the Russian Far Eastern island of Sakhalin, who were brought there for forced labor by the Japanese during World War II, will fly to Seoul on Wednesday for permanent resettlement. (Korea Herald, "KOREANS IN SAKHALIN TO RETURN HOME," Seoul, 3, 2/14/96). III. Document Available The Nautilus Institute has the following document available on our public FTP site (ftp.netcom.com) under the pub/na/nautilus/usefuldocs directory. USChina- Richard Halloran's article on China-Taiwan conflict and how US involvement in it may affect US politics given the upcoming elections. For information on how to access the Institute's public FTP site or to receive a copy of these documents, send e-mail to nautilus@netcom.com or you may access the site through the Institute's Web site under the NAPSNet Resources section: http://www.nautilus.org/nautilus --- The NAPSNet Daily Report aims to serve as a forum for dialogue and exchange among Peace and Security specialists and invites you to reply to today's report. We welcome commentary or papers for distribution to the network. Produced by the Nautilus Institute Dana Fisher: nautilus@netcom.com Berkeley, California Stephen Noerper: nautilusdc@igc.apc.org Washington, DC Timothy Savage: rcaks@gaya.kreonet.re.kr Seoul, Republic of Korea Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ihep.ac.cn Shanghai, People's Republic of China Chunsi Wu: dlshen@fudan.ihep.ac.cn Shanghai, People's Republic of China