NORTHEAST ASIA PEACE AND SECURITY NETWORK DAILY REPORT For Tuesday, September 10, 1996, from Berkeley, California, USA This report is distributed to e-mail participants of the NAPS Network. Please send news items, or contributions to the discussion section, to: Editor, napsnet@nautilus.org Conventions for readers and a list of acronyms and abbreviations are available to all recipients. In today's Report: I. United States II. Republic of Korea III. Russian Federation I. United States A. Government Statements 1. Okinawa Bases Referendum US State Department Spokesman Nicholas Burns ("STATE DEPARTMENT NOON BRIEFING, SEPT. 9," USIA Transcript, 9/10/96) stated that Sunday's referendum in Okinawa, Japan, in which residents voted overwhelmingly in favor of reducing the US military presence on the island, "was a very important event. We watched it quite closely." Burns went on to say that "the most important thing " is that "President Clinton and Prime Minister Hashimoto ... reaffirmed in their summit meeting last April the importance of the U.S.-Japan Mutual Security Treaty, its role in maintaining stability in Asia, peace in Asia, and promoting prosperity in Asia." "The United States will continue to cooperate with the Government of Japan through the Special Action Committee on Okinawa that was established by our two governments. This is a process that we hope will help to calm some of the concerns of people on Okinawa. We seek to reduce the impact of the American military presence in Okinawa consistent with our responsibilities under the Mutual Security Treaty that we have in place with the Japanese," Burns said. Burns concluded by saying, "we're committed to keep American forces in Japan; that they're there at the request of the Japanese Government. I think if we all work very hard on this issue, we believe that there can be satisfaction for all concerned." US Presidential Press Secretary Mike McCurry ("WHITE HOUSE REPORT, MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 9," USIA Transcript, 9/10/96), asked at a news briefing if the referendum in Okinawa compromises the US presence there, replied, "It does not. Remember, we had very effective dialogue with the Government of Japan in April and the President at that time pledged to return to the people of Okinawa 20 percent of the land now used by the U.S. military. We've been working with the Japanese Government to do that, while maintaining our commitment and readiness to insure the peace and security of both the region and the people of Japan." McCurry added that the referendum "did not measure up to the expectations of some of those who promoted it." More than 90 percent of those voting sought a cut-back in the US presence, according to news reports, but the turnout was about 60 per cent, much less than expected. McCurry said the Special Action Committee on Okinawa is pursuing some of the "sensitivities and concerns related to our basing in Okinawa and the legitimate concerns of the people of Okinawa." 2. Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty US Presidential Press Secretary Mike McCurry ("WHITE HOUSE REPORT, MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 9," USIA Transcript, 9/10/96) stated that "The President applauds the Government of Australia" for its plan to present a draft of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) to the United Nations General Assembly. McCurry added, "It is a key foreign policy goal of this administration, working with the other permanent members of the UN Security Council, to achieve a Comprehensive Test Ban. And we will be working, without revealing our strategy, within the United Nations to achieve our goals." McCurry suggested that Clinton may speak on that topic when he addresses the General Assembly later this month. B. Media 1. DPRK Famine The Associated Press ("NORTH KOREA FAMINE DEEPENING," Rome, 9/10/96) reported that a new report issued by two Rome-based agencies, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Program, says that famine conditions in the DPRK are deepening. Recent flooding has worsened food shortages, forcing authorities to reduce food rations and introduce potatoes to the country's rice-based diet. "Potatoes are not considered a staple and are normally utilized for industrial purposes," said the report. Many people receive only seven ounces a day of cereal, less than half of what the UN agencies consider an acceptable minimum. 2. European Union Participation in KEDO The Associated Press ("US: IRELAND PEACE TALKS MOVING," Washington, 9/10/96) reported that US President Bill Clinton, in his Oval Office meeting with Irish Prime Minister John Bruton, raised the subject of the US-DPRK agreement to provide the DPRK with new nuclear reactors in exchange for its dismantling of its nuclear arms industry. The US wants the European Union to become a permanent member of the board of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO), the international consortium set up in 1994 to provide alternate fuel sources for the DPRK while the reactors are under construction. 3. Okinawa Bases Referendum The Associated Press ("PROGRESS SEEN ON OKINAWA BASES," Tokyo, 9/10/96) reported that both Japan's Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto and Okinawa's Governor Masahide Ota emerged from their meeting yesterday praising it as successful in breaking a deadlock over US military bases. Hashimoto promised Ota that Tokyo will fund the "21st Century Okinawa Grand Design" program put forth by the island, which proposes making the island a free trade zone and a center for learning and tourism. He said the government will spend $46million in its next budget to study the plan. Although Hashimoto did not promise any new reductions in the number of US bases or military personnel on Okinawa, he reiterated earlier promises to close the Futenma air base and move live artillery practice to other parts of Japan. Ota said he was pleased that the government is "seriously tackling" Okinawan issues, and added that given Hashimoto's pledges he would reconsider his staunch defiance of central government orders and a Supreme Court ruling demanding that he force Okinawan landowners to lease their land for US military facilities. Hashimoto later told a separate news conference that Japan must "humbly reflect" on its past policy toward Okinawa and said it is important that all Japan "share ... Okinawa's pain." C. Other Related Issues 1. Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Reuters ("AUSTRALIA WELCOMES SUPPORT FOR NUKE PACT," Canberra, 9/10/96) reported that Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer welcomed the strong international support for Canberra's UN campaign to pass the nuclear test ban treaty. Australia's request on Monday that the UN General Assembly approve the test ban treaty and open it for signing was backed by 126 states. "I am very confident the Australian resolution will be supported and we will have, as a result of that, made a very substantial contribution to the process of nuclear non-proliferation," Downer told parliament Tuesday. The treaty would not come into force until 44 states with a nuclear potential, including recalcitrant India, signed and ratified it. But most diplomats believe that once a country signs and ratifies the accord, it will abide by it. The future of the treaty thus also depends on a quick signature from US President Bill Clinton and ratification by the Republican-controlled Senate. Ratification is uncertain; the platform adopted by the Republican party last month at its convention says the US needs "development of nuclear weapons and their periodic testing" for its security. The New York Times ("U.N. DEBATE ON TEST BAN IS LOW-KEY," United Nations, 9/10/96) reported that General Assembly debate begun Monday on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty was unexpectedly smooth. India, which stands virtually alone in opposing the treaty, introduced no procedural hurdles. India's UN representative, Prakash Shah, gave a low-key address that focused on India's commitment to disarmament and reasons for opposing the treaty, and ignored editorial advice in the Indian press to go in fighting with demands for changes in the treaty text. However, Shah strongly defended India's right to a nuclear option. "Countries around us continue their weapons programs either openly or in a clandestine manner," he said. "In such an environment, we cannot permit our option to be constrained or eroded in any manner as long as nuclear weapon states remain unwilling to accept the obligation to eliminate their nuclear arsenals." Shah added that there was "complete national consensus" on this stand. Pakistan's envoy to the Geneva treaty talks, Munir Akram, replied by accusing India of "hypocrisy," and said that despite its support for the treaty it could not sign it as long as it had concerns about its neighbor's nuclear weapons programs. "I would like to state, once again, for the record, that any step of nuclear escalation in our region will find a matching response by Pakistan to safeguard our security," Akram said. 2. Chemical Weapons Treaty The Associated Press ("SENATE STIFF ON WEAPONS TREATY," Washington, 9/9/96) reported that US Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott on Monday expressed reservations about the pending Chemical Weapons Treaty, two days after President Clinton called on the Senate to ratify the pact quickly. The treaty requires all nations signing it to destroy their chemical weapons and pledge never to develop, produce or acquire such weapons. The Senate tentatively is scheduled to debate the treaty on Thursday and vote on it on Friday, and Lott's comments suggested that Senate approval is by no means assured. On the Senate floor, Lott said he was most concerned about how the treaty could be enforced on countries like the DPRK, Iraq, and Libya -- "the renegade countries of the world" -- that have not even signed it. Lott also released a letter he wrote to Clinton, dated September 6, in which he asked the administration to declassify documents about Russian compliance with existing chemical weapons controls. II. Republic of Korea A. Government Statements B. Media 1. DPRK-Russia Relations Russia will seek to negotiate a new treaty with the DPRK defining their relations, to replace the 1961 treaty of friendship and mutual assistance that expires September 10. According to the Interfax news agency, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said that both Russia and the DPRK have exchanged proposed drafts and that detailed negotiations are to follow shortly. The first article in the old treaty, governing the automatic military involvement of Russia in case of war on the Korean peninsula, reportedly has been omitted in the new proposal. (The Korea Times, "RUSSIA TO SEEK NEW TREATY WITH NK," Moscow, 9/10/96, and Hankyoreh Shinmun, "NORTH-RUSSIA, MILITARY ALLIANCE TO EXPIRE ON THE 10TH," Seoul, 9/10/96) 2. ROK-Russia Arms Trade The ROK Defense Ministry announced that it will allow Russian participation in the ROK arms market. The decision appears to be an effort to reduce the ROK armed forces' high dependence on US weapons. The ministry also announced that it intends to dispatch a logistics defense attache to Russia as early as the end of this year, in addition to the four defense attaches currently there, to collect up-to-date information on the Russian defense industry. (Hankyoreh Shinmun, Kim Sung-geol, "DEFENSE MINISTRY, TO OPEN ARMS MARKET TO RUSSIA," Seoul, 9/10/96) 3. ROK Air Force FX Project The Seoul Air Show, scheduled for October 21-27, is set to be the showcase for aircraft makers from Russia, France, the US and other countries competing to join the ROK Air Force's next- generation fighter (FX) project. The ROK already has a US$5.2 billion Korea Fighter Program under way to introduce 120 F-16s made by Lockheed by the year 2000. The FX program is a long-term fighter program intended to meet needs in the early twenty-first century. Among the competitors are the Russian Sukhoi Su-37, the French Rafale, and the US F-15 Eagle. A ROK Air Force source said that the EF-2000, developed by four European countries, and the Russian MiG-29 are also on the list of candidates. (The Korea Herald, Lee Sung-yul, "RUSSIA, U.S., FRANCE VIE FOR KOREA'S F/X," Seoul, 9/10/96) 4. ROK-US Relations After a six-month suspension, the ROK and the US will resume talks in Seoul tomorrow on revising the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), the accord governing the status of US military personnel in the ROK. Washington suspended discussions last March after the ROK proposed a draft revision envisaging stronger ROK jurisdiction over US soldiers suspected of committing crimes. The central issue is the timing of delivery of US criminal suspects to ROK authorities. Under the current SOFA provisions, US servicemen accused of crimes are placed under ROK custody only after conviction and exhaustion of appeals. The two sides are said to have reached an agreement in principle to hand over US criminal suspects to ROK authorities on or before indictment. The US delegation will be led jointly by Charles Kartman, deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, and Kurt Campbell, deputy assistant defense secretary in charge of East Asia and the Pacific. The ROK delegation will be led by Song Min-soon, deputy director general for American affairs at the ROK Foreign Ministry. (The Korea Herald, "KOREA, U.S. TO RESUME TALKS ON REVISING SOFA; BOTH SIDES SEEKING TO IRON OUT DIFFERENCES RESULTING FROM LEGAL SYSTEMS," Seoul, 9/10/96) III. Russian Federation A. Government Statements 1. RF-DPRK Relations Kommersant-Daily ("BETTER LATE THAN NEVER," Moscow, 4, 9/3/96) reported that Kan Sen-san, Premier of the DPRK Administrative Council, sent a telegram of congratulation to Viktor Chernomyrdin on the occasion of the latter's nomination as the Chairman of the RF Government. The telegram expressed "confidence in broadening and developing of good-neighborly and friendly relations" with RF, and gratitude for previous RF Government's condolences sent at the time of this summer floods in DPRK. The DPRK Central Telegraph Agency indicated no dates concerning either Kan Sen- san's telegram or the DPRK Foreign Affairs Minister Kim Yong- nam's congratulations to Yevgeniy Primakov on the occasion of the latter's nomination as the RF Foreign Affairs Minister. 2. RF Security, Weapons and Nuclear Materials Safety Kommersant-Daily's Andrey Bagrov and Ilya Bulavinov ("RUSSIA'S SECURITY IS DISCUSSED BEHIND THE CLOSED DOORS," Moscow, 1-2, 9/6/96) reported that the RF Presidium held a closed session to discuss RF military procurement and the problem of safeguarding weapons and nuclear materials in the RF. The "secret session" was presided over by Aleksey Bolshakov, First Vice Premier of the RF Government. Andrey Kokoshin, RF Minister of Defense, reported on the safety of weapons, including nuclear weapons. The article discussed concerns about possible "breaches" that "might appear" in existing safeguards against weapons proliferation due to ministerial reorganization, "a nuclear trail" from RF nuclear centers to Iran which "seemingly might reach via Iran to North Korea as well," and the need to shift the emphasis of efforts to safeguard weapons of mass destruction to the protection of nuclear centers and military storage facilities themselves. Nezavisimaya Gazeta's Viktor Kuzmin ("DEFENSE PROCUREMENT INCREASED," Moscow, 2, 9/6/96) reported that yesterday at a closed session of the RF Government Presidium the defense procurements issue was discussed. "Apparently the Government was far from eager to publicize the results of undoubtedly heated discussion and canceled the planned briefing for journalists .... There is nothing unexpected in the closed nature of the Russian cabinet session, because a majority of ministers and vice premiers have for a long time voiced dissatisfaction with public discussion of problematic issues. From now on, it seems, open sessions will be held just once a month." The defense procurements for 1997 are set to increase by 3.2 trillion rubles, and an additional 10 trillion rubles are to be allocated to the needs of defense and law enforcement in the country. But these sums are believed to be neutralized by the debts that defense industries have already accumulated: the Government still has not paid fully its 1994-1995 bill of 790 billion rubles, and the debt for the already-implemented 1996 Government Defense Order is over 10 trillion rubles. RF cabinet members reportedly believe that to get the defense enterprises out of this crisis will require integrating them into broader so-called financial-industrial groups; an additional option is a wider use of dual-purpose technologies. 3. RF New Foreign Trade Arrangement Kommersant-Daily's Vadim Bardin ("RUSSIAN FOREIGN TRADE REPRESENTATIVE OFFICES LOST 1:4," Moscow, 2, 9/3/96) reported on the recent decision of the RF Government to reduce the number of official RF foreign trade representative offices (TRO). 35 of the presently operating 47 TROs are to be transformed into commercial councilor's offices operated by the Foreign Affairs Ministry at the RF embassies, each with only 2-3 persons employed. TROs will remain only in the G7 and East European countries, the PRC, India, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Indonesia, and Nigeria. In addition, the staff of the RF Foreign Trade Ministry is to be reduced by 450 persons. B. Media 1. Asia Pacific Responses to US-Iraq Conflict Segodnya's Leonid Velekhov ("US SECOND STRIKE AGAINST IRAQ," Moscow, 1, 9/5/96) and practically all other newspapers reported that the RF and the PRC criticized the US missile strikes against military installations in Iraq, while Japan together with the other US allies, except France, apparently are positive about the act. 2. Asia Pacific Banking Finansoviye Izvestia's Vladimir Kovalevskiy ("BANKING CONGRESS OF ASIA PACIFIC COUNTRIES," Moscow, I, 9/3/96) reported that the Congress on Banking of the Asia Pacific Countries opened in Vladivostok on September 2, sponsored by the RF Central Bank, the Association of Russian Banks and the Administration of Primorskiy Area of RF. The Congress will last for 5 days. 3. East Asian NICs Economic Problems Izvestia's Aleksandr Platkovskiy ("'ASIAN MIRACLE GETS EXHAUSTED," Moscow, 3, 9/6/96) reported about a "confusion and trouble" in Asia's business world caused by statistical reports showing general decreases in exports in the first half of 1995 from the ROK, the ROC, Singapore, Hong Kong, the PRC, Thailand, and Malaysia. Experts predict that 1995 will be the worst for these newly industrialized countries in terms of foreign trade. Paul Krugman, a US economist, stated that the future of the Asia Pacific economy is far from being bright. The time has come to pay for the "miracle" built on a shaky basis. Krugman sees a close similarity between the former Soviet Union in its hey day and the authoritarian regimes of East Asia, maintaining that both were able to mobilize cheap labor by means of artificial constraints on their peoples' social demands and political activity. East Asian labor is no longer so cheap, while the industrial infrastructure has become gradually more obsolete, leading to a deteriorating capacity to produce goods demanded by the leading world markets. In some experts' opinion, Eastern Europe, Russia and other CIS countries as yet cannot compensate for the East Asian states' loss of positions in the US market. But there's hope that "the economic space between the Baltics and Chukotka" will get out of its depression, thus providing possibly a chance to save "the Asian Miracle." 4. RF Far Eastern Energy Situation and Politics Pravda's Ivan Boltovski ("THE SEA-SIDE BOAT IS AGAIN ON THE CREST OF POLITICAL INTRIGUE," Moscow, 2, 9/4/96) reported that a group of parliament members of the Primorskiy Area in the RF Far East asked the RF President Boris Yeltsin to issue a special decree on financial assistance to that region. They ask for 450 billion rubles [about US$90 million] in direct assistance and 1.8 trillion rubles in federal tax credits to the local budget. Otherwise they expect an energy crisis on the eve of winter and instability in the region. In the author's opinion, "while in Chechnya the struggle between the clans of Moscow and Grozny for the right to control natural resources has been temporarily stopped, in Primorskiy Area any 'armed draw' is not even in sight yet." On September 22 there will be a referendum there on the issue of confidence in the present Governor Ye Nazdratenko, who is much disliked by the RF Presidential Administration Head A. Chubais. In the author's opinion: "A. Chubais will survive the coming calamity in Primorskiy Area, but Russia won't." Kommersant-Daily ("PRIMORSKIY GOVERNOR EXPOSES THE MOSCOW CONSPIRACY," Moscow, 3, 9/6/96) reported that the Primorskiy Area Governor Ye. Nazdratenko spoke over the local radio network yesterday in response to the local energy producers' request to remove him and introduce RF direct rule in the Area. He put all the blame for the catastrophic energy situation in the Area on the RF federal authorities, arguing that the crisis mainly was a result of excessively high electricity prices introduced on August 1 and the RF government's delays of budget allocations to the Primorskiy Area. He also said that the disastrous energy situation in the Area was "artificially created by Moscow officials in order 'to put the people and the economy of Primoriye on their knees', to plant their own men in power positions and 'to steal away the riches of Primoriye'." Segodnya's Valeriy Musin ("PRIMORSKIY GOVERNOR HASN'T SETTLED IT PEACEFULLY WITH DRIVERS," Moscow, 2, 9/7/96) reported that the Governor of Primorskiy Area Ye. Nazdratenko, who is under continuing pressure from coal miners and energy sector workers of the area, unilaterally revoked the Administration's contract with the "Promavtotrans" joint stock company that provides bus services for the area. He did it after a warning strike by company bus drivers protesting against the half year delay of their wage payments. The drivers warned that they'll start an indefinite term strike on September 16. Segodnya's Oleg Kryuchek ("ADMINISTRATION OF PRIMORIYE IS TO DISCIPLINE REBELLIOUS ENERGY PRODUCERS," Moscow, 2, 9/6/96) and Nezavisimaya Gazeta ("PROTEST ACTION IN PRIMORIYE," Moscow, 2, 9/7/96) reported a hunger strike by some employees of the electric power plant that is the major source of electricity for the whole Primorskiy Area continues. The strike participants demand payment of wages delayed for four months. They supported the "Dal'energo" joint stock company employees' decision to start an indefinite all-area strike of energy producers on September 16. Izvestia's Aleksandr Tarasov ("SAKHALIN'S CUT OFF FROM THE MAINLAND," Moscow, 2, 9/6/96) reported that the ferry link between the RF Far Eastern mainland and the Island of Sakhalin stopped its operations. The Sakhalin Maritime Shipping Line joint stock company for a long time has been lacking money to buy fuel for its 6 diesel ferry ships because the Sakhalin Railway Administration, the "Sakhalin'energo" joint stock company and some other big customers do not pay their multi-billion ruble bills. Meanwhile trains with coal, fuels and other cargo continue to arrive to the sea-port of Vanino on the mainland, and the Autumn stormy season is rapidly approaching. 5. RF-PRC Trade Segodnya's Leonid Velekhov ("CHINA'S STATE COUNCIL MEMBER ANALYZES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC REFORM," Moscow, 2, 9/3/96), Nezavisimaya Gazeta ("A CHINESE LEADER'S OPTIMISM, Moscow, 2, 9/3/96), Kommersant-Daily's Valeria Sychyova ("TO MEASURE SEVEN TIMES AND NOT TO CUT AT ALL," Moscow, 4, 9/5/96) reported that Li Tein, PRC State Council Member and Chairman of the PRC State Committee on Economic System Reform, after his visit to Moscow and St. Petersburg, said at a press conference in Moscow that for Russia and China "it is not only possible, but necessary" to reach US$20 billion in trade by the end of the century. The comment referred to a statement by RF President Boris Yeltsin during his official visit to the PRC in April 1996. Strengthening of cooperation in mutual settlements between the largest banks was stressed as a most important prerequisite, there being presently only one Russian bank among the 417 foreign banks from 33 countries operating in PRC. In the first half of 1996, bilateral RF-PRC trade reached the level of US$3.27 billion, that being 41.2 percent higher than in the same period of 1995. 6. PRC 1996 Harvest Pravda's Andrey Krushinski ("CHINA'S YET ANOTHER RECORD BREAKER," Moscow, 1, 9/3/96) reported that despite the catastrophic floods this summer which damaged more than 2 million hectares of cultivated land, the PRC is expected to have the total grain harvest of 465 million tons in 1996. The harvest will be "more than ever before in China's history," according to Woo Hunyao, press representative of the PRC Ministry of Agriculture. 7. PRC Jamming of "Voice of Tibet" Segodnya ("BEIJING JAMMING THE TIBETAN OPPOSITION RADIO BROADCASTS," Moscow, 9, 9/4/96) reported that starting from August 30 the PRC began jamming the broadcasts of the short-wave "Voice of Tibet" radio station from Oslo. The station since May has been used by the Tibetan opposition for broadcasts to their compatriots in the PRC, India and Nepal. Their sympathizers in Oslo asked the Government of Norway to demand that the PRC Government oppose the jamming as a violation of international conventions. 8. PRC Welcoming Bush Segodnya's Ivan Shomov ("ZIANG ZEMIN CONFIDED HIS MOST INTIMATE THOUGHTS TO GEORGE BUSH," Moscow, 3, 9/7/96) reported on the former US President George Bush's visit to the PRC to participate in the international "21st Century Forum" held in Beijing and his reception by the PRC Chairman Ziang Zemin, who "confided the PRC leaders' most intimate thoughts 'to the desirable guest from America.'" The PRC leader said that "Taiwan is still the key problem influencing the health and stable development" of relations between Washington and Beijing. The author recalls George Bush's work as the first US Ambassador to PRC and the recent aggravation of tension in the Straits of Taiwan. "Presently in the White House and in the Capitol they discuss the subject of 'punishing China' for its recent supplies of missiles to Pakistan and the continuation of its nuclear cooperation with Islamabad and Teheran. Obviously being aware of that, Bush could only tell Ziang Zemin that 'some US Congress members understand China poorly and that's why they don't know how to deal with it.'" 9. Japan and Hong Kong Finansoviye Izvestia ("JAPAN IS READY TO COOPERATE WITH HONG KONG ON THE OLD BASIS," Moscow, I, 9/3/96) reported that Japanese investors might withdraw from Hong Kong if the latter changes its legislation and does not retain its economic autonomy after becoming the Special Administrative Area of the PRC on July 1, 1997. David Lang, Hong Kong Trade Representative in Japan, believes that the Japanese fears are not without grounds because the model of two systems within one country is absolutely new. 10. Japanese Court Decision on the AUM Sinrikyo Case Sovetskaya Rossia {"COMPENSATION EXPECTED FROM 'MESSIAH' AND 'APOSTLES'," Moscow, 3, 9/3/96) reported that Syoko Asahara, leader of AUM Sinrikyo, and two other members of that Japanese "terrorist sect" will have to pay more than US$7.5 million as compensation to relatives of those who were killed in the poison gas attack staged by the sect in the Tokyo subway on 3/20/95. However, the majority of experts strongly doubt that Asahara, who himself might get death sentence, is financially able to obey the Tokyo district court's decision concerning the compensation. 11. RF Far Eastern Border Guards' Award Nezavisimaya Gazeta ("BORDER GUARDS NOMINATED FOR AWARDS," Moscow, 2, 9/6/96) reported that the crew members of the border guard ship that on August 28 opened fire on 2 Japanese vessels poaching fish in RF territorial waters in the Kurils area were nominated for medals "For Distinguished Service in Guarding the State Border." 12. DPRK Leadership Succession Problems Izvestia's Yuri Savenkov ("KIM JONG-IL WOULD HAVE TAKEN ALL THE POWER LONG AGO, BUT HE CANNOT," Moscow, 3, 9/5/96) reported how the present DPRK internal political situation is viewed by Park Gap-dong, leader of the Front for Democratic Unification and Salvation of Korea, which was created in Moscow in 1992 by former DPRK officials now living in some CIS countries, Japan and elsewhere. Park Gap-dong, a secretary of the underground Central Committee of the Korean Workers Party in Seoul at the time of the DPRK military invasion in 1950, denounced it then as an adventurous act and fled to Japan. He believes that the present DPRK leader Kim Jong-il still has not taken all the supreme official positions that his late father Kim Il-sung occupied not only because of the tradition of long mourning but also because "closer to his death the dictator seemed to harbor some doubts about his chosen one." Park Gap-dong maintains that allegedly during one of his trips around the country Kim Il-sung accidentally found out that "prosperity" in DPRK grocery shops, unusual in early spring, was actually just a ruse skillfully arranged by his son. The father got very angry and removed his would-be successor from high party positions. Together with that Kim Il-sung brought his own brother Kim Yon-dyu from political oblivion and made him a Politburo member and Vice President, didn't grant his son permission to meet the former US President Jimmy Carter, and suddenly brought to Pyongyang his second son Kim Hpen-il who was then the DPRK Ambassador in Finland. Park Gap-dong has some suspicions about the sudden death of Kim Il- sung surrounded by the best medical doctors and servants who were reported later to have committed a mysterious suicide, adding that "a mass suicide of that sort is not typical of us Koreans and so there was something wrong here." In Park's opinion the new DPRK leader hasn't succeeded yet in nominating his own man as the Defense Minister because he doesn't control the whole army. Park believes the army is actually ruled by three power centers headed respectively by the present Defense Minister Tsoi Gwang, Kim Jong-il himself, and the Commander of the troops stationed in the 38 Parallel Area. Finally Park points out that the US cannot understand that the reason for the DPRK leaders' continued "procrastination" on the issue of bilateral diplomatic missions exchange is that "only the leader recognized by all can OK such decision. There is no such leader in the DPRK today." 13. ROK Ex-Presidents Case Segodnya's Ivan Shomov ("SOUTH KOREAN PROSECUTORS HUNGRY FOR FORMER PRESIDENT RHO TAE WOO'S BLOOD," Moscow, 3, 9/3/96) and Sovetskaya Rossia ("SENTENCES PROTESTED AS SOFT," Moscow, 3, 9/3/96) reported that the ROK prosecutors lodged their protest against former ROK President Roh Tae-woo's sentence of 22.5 years imprisonment as too soft and demanded life imprisonment instead. Also they demanded longer prison terms for 13 former military officers and 9 businessmen and officials sentenced at the same trial. Observers believe that Rho Tae-woo and the other former ROK President Chun Doo-hwan will be in some way pardoned by the present ROK President Kim Young-sam. Kommersant-Daily ("RUSSIAN VPK IS PREPARING FOR ENTRY TO SOUTH KOREAN MARKET," Moscow, 4, 9/6/96) reported that the ROK Defense Ministry declared its intention to diversify its armament imports, meaning in particular possibly purchase of RF-made SU-35 fighters. The ROK is also interested in RF-made anti-aircraft systems. A memorandum of intentions is planned to be discussed during a visit to the ROK on September 16-20 by Valentin Bogdanchikov, Director of the Main Directorate of International Military Cooperation of the RF Ministry of Defense. Apparently the arms supplies are to be made in payment for the US$1.5 billion debt that RF owes ROK as of today. C. Other Related Issues 1. US Future Military Capacities and Scenarios Kommersant-Daily's Pyotr Disastrov ("AMERICANS' FUTUROLOGICAL DESIGNS," Moscow, 15, 8/31/96) published a review of some future US military high technology developments and war scenarios. The article starts with the following: "Among the military games developed by Pentagon there is a game that may be conveniently called 'The Year 2020.' The evil Chinese try to seize a 'Siberian Republic' recently established out of fragments of disintegrated Russia. The USA decides to save Siberians from the would-be oppressors .... The attack plan has little in common with the war in Kuwait. The major difference is that the Chinese arsenal of radar-evading missiles forces the Americans to operate without airdromes, ports, base camps and various land equipment which predetermined the Allies' supremacy in the Middle East desert, because the Chinese are able to detect military objects by means of their spy satellites and to destroy them with their long range missiles despite American anti-missile defense efforts." The author describes various high technology armaments that are bound to appear in the next 20 years, stressing the role of information exchange between the services, troops and individual computerized soldiers. While during the Gulf war information flows of 192,000 words per minute enabled 23.4 men to control 10 square kilometers of battle territory, such flows are expected to reach 1,500,000,000,000 words per minute enabling only 2.4 men to control the same territory. 2. ROC-Indonesia Contacts Nezavisimaya Gazeta ("HEAD OF TAIWAN MFA IN INDONESIA," Moscow, 4, 9/4/96) and Segodnya's Ivan Shomov ("TAIPEI'S SECRET DIPLOMACY BECOMES REGULAR," Moscow, 8, 9/6/96) reported that the ROC Minister of Foreign Affairs John Jiang "secretly visited" Indonesia. It is believed that although Indonesia officially maintains diplomatic relations with the PRC and "considers Taiwan as one of the PRC provinces," this visit will still provoke a negative reaction by the PRC. Presently the ROC is recognized by only 30 countries of the world. Recalling the recent "detective story" visit by the ROC Prime Minister to the Ukraine. Segodnya's author pointed out the ROC's interest in Ukrainian military technology, particularly that SU-27 fighter-interceptor (made both in the Ukraine and in the RF), that the ROC has displayed. The RF recently sold SU-27's to the PRC, and ROC experts' acquaintance with the SU-27 technology might contribute to ROC anti-aircraft defense capacity. ----------- The NAPSNet Daily Report aims to serve as a forum for dialogue and exchange among peace and security specialists. We invite you to reply to today's report, and we welcome commentary or papers for distribution to the network. Produced by the Nautilus Institute Wade Huntley: napsnet@nautilus.org Berkeley, California, United States Shin Dong-bom: gator@star.elim.co.kr Seoul, Republic of Korea Peter Razvin: icipu@glas.apc.org Moscow, Russian Federation Chunsi Wu: dlshen@fudan.ihep.ac.cn Shanghai, People's Republic of China Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ihep.ac.cn Shanghai, People's Republic of China Hiroyasu Akutsu: akutsu@glocomnet.or.jp Tokyo, Japan