[Cankor] Report #203

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Dear subscriber,

Welcome to issue #203 of the CanKor Report.

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CANADA-KOREA ELECTRONIC INFORMATION SERVICE

CanKor # 203

Tuesday, 19 April 2005

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On a recent visit to Pyongyang, US scholar Selig Harrison is told by senior 
DPRK officials that they had abandoned their offer to negotiate a 
"step-by-step agreement" with the USA for the dismantlement of their nuclear 
programme. The officials tell him of plans to unload another 8,000 plutonium 
fuel rods from the Yongbyon nuclear reactor, providing enough nuclear fuel 
to double their existing nuclear arsenal. During the past week, satellite 
photographs seem to show the shutdown of the reactor, raising concern that 
preparations are proceeding toward further reprocessing for military use.

The ROK requests the USA to stop formulating a military contingency plan 
which foresees the US military taking wartime command of ROK forces in case 
of an emergency in North Korea. This is seen to infringe on ROK sovereignty 
and its ability to ensure peace on the Korean Peninsula. President Roh 
Moo-hyun tells a German newspaper that he opposes increasing pressure on the 
DPRK to end its nuclear ambitions, arguing that antagonizing the DPRK will 
only aggravate the situation.

The UN Commission on Human Rights passes a resolution critical of the DPRK 
(as expected), and the ROK abstains from voting (as expected). Originated by 
the EU, but sponsored together with Japan, this year's resolution for the 
first time features a demand for the return of abductees, confirming to the 
DPRK that the Commission's concerns are more political than humanitarian.

ROK President Roh tells Germans that South Korea has a policy to actively 
support the North Korean economy once the nuclear problem has been solved. 
In the meantime, humanitarian aid will continue. A South Korean who defected 
to the DPRK in a fishing boat claimed drunkenness when he was returned by 
North Korea. ROK and DPRK zoos arrange to exchange animals, including 
Asiatic black bears, lynx, coyotes, African ponies, Siberian weasels, 
hippopotamuses, red kangaroos, wallabies, guanacos and llamas.

DPRK leader Kim Jong Il was chosen to succeed his father when the latter 
turned 62 years of age. Although he is now himself 63 years old, a successor 
has yet to be named. This week's CanKor FOCUS examines the candidates for 
leadership succession.

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Contents:


1.      YONGBYON REACTOR SHUTDOWN WORRIES USA

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/18/politics/18nuke.html?

2.      ROK REBUFFS US CONTINGENCY PLAN ON DPRK

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200504/kt2005041517141310440.htm

3.      ROK PRESIDENT ROH OPPOSES PRESSURE ON DPRK

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2005/04/15/200504150010.asp

4.      DPRK DEALS A BLOW TO ARMS TALKS

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/11/international/asia/11korea.html?ex=1114056000&en=fe670a99a96cc2eb&ei=5070

5.      UNCHR PASSES DPRK RIGHTS RESOLUTION; ROK ABSTAINS

http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200504/200504140018.html

6.      ROK WILLING TO HELP DPRK ECONOMY

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050413/ap_on_re_as/korea_1

7.      TWO KOREAS TO EXCHANGE WEASELS, HIPPOS ACROSS DMZ

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=oddlyEnoughNews&storyID=8169417



FOCUS: Candidates for leadership succession

8.      THE ODDS: AFTER KIM JONG IL

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/prem/200505/henry

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1.      YONGBYON REACTOR SHUTDOWN WORRIES USA

by David E. Sanger, New York Times, 18 April 2005



The suspected shutdown of a reactor at North Korea's main nuclear weapons 
complex has raised concern at the White House that the country could be 
preparing to make good on its recent threat to harvest a new load of nuclear 
fuel, potentially increasing the size of its nuclear arsenal.

While there is no way to know with any certainty why the reactor might have 
been shut down, it has been North Korea's main means of obtaining plutonium 
for weapons. The Central Intelligence Agency has told Congress it estimates 
that in the last two years the country turned a stockpile of spent fuel from 
the same reactor into enough bomb-grade material for more than six nuclear 
weapons.

The White House's concern over the past week arises from two developments. 
An American scholar with unusual access to North Korea's leaders, Selig S. 
Harrison, a long-time specialist on North Korea at the Center for 
International Policy in Washington, said after visiting the country two 
weeks ago that he was told by a very senior North Korean that there were 
plans "to unload the reactor to create a situation" to force President Bush 
to negotiate on terms more favourable to North Korea.

That focused new attention on spy satellite photographs of the reactor, 
which has been watched intensively in recent months. While American 
officials would not discuss what the spy satellites had seen, commercial 
satellite photographs of the plant, taken by DigitalGlobe and interpreted by 
the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, show 
that the plant was apparently shut down or shifted to a very low power level 
at least 10 days ago, around the time of Mr. Harrison's visit.

Mr. Harrison's message and the satellite photographs present a mystery that 
has underscored how difficult it is for intelligence officials to decipher 
the state of the nuclear program in North Korea. The signs could mean that 
preparations are beginning to extract fuel rods from the aging five-megawatt 
reactor, the first step in the elaborate process of reprocessing the rods 
into weapons-grade plutonium. But there could also be more innocent 
explanations, among them maintenance - or a diplomatic bluff.

"You can't reach any definitive determination yet," said David Albright, a 
former weapons inspector who heads the institute. He and other experts note 
that it is uncertain how many weapons the North could produce if it removed 
the fuel rods, which have been in the reactor for a little over two years. 
But it would be likely to obtain enough plutonium for at least two weapons, 
and maybe more, if it had begun to master the complex art of reprocessing 
the rods into plutonium.

Though administration officials strike a public pose of little concern about 
North Korea's threats, the message brought back by Mr. Harrison has seized 
the attention of senior American officials as they are debating internally 
whether the diplomatic approach they have taken for the past two years 
should be declared a failure. White House officials are a bit skeptical of 
Mr. Harrison, who has been critical of Mr. Bush's refusal to negotiate one 
on one with North Korea, and who is often warmly received in Pyongyang, the 
capital.

"It is still too murky to tell exactly what the North Koreans are doing," 
said one senior administration official who is deeply immersed in the 
intelligence. The North has repeatedly publicly declared in recent months 
that it now possesses nuclear weapons. It recently urged the United States 
to accept that fact and engage in mutual arms reduction talks.

An Asian diplomat deeply involved in the talks said this weekend that "there 
seems to have been a decision made by the North Koreans that they are going 
to plunge ahead and hope that everyone comes to the conclusion that they've 
made so many weapons now that it's too late to reverse things."

Mr. Harrison said that in his meetings the North Koreans said they wanted to 
use the removal of the reactor fuel to force Mr. Bush to "negotiate a 
freeze" on new nuclear activity, rather than full dismantlement. "They said 
they will not make commitments on dismantling their nuclear arms, the 
ultimate step, until we normalize relations with the North," Mr. Harrison 
said. Mr. Bush has said dismantlement must come first, and he has rejected a 
new nuclear freeze, saying that a freeze agreement reached with President 
Clinton ultimately failed.

Still, another senior official, who is a central player in the continuing 
internal arguments within the administration over how to handle North 
Korea's mixture of bluffs and provocation, said Mr. Bush would not be 
intimidated into changing his strategy even if the North raced to produce 
more weapons fuel. "We still think a peaceful solution is possible," he 
said. He added, however, that if North Korea refused to return to serious 
negotiations about disarming, "or takes additional provocative action, we 
will need to consult with our four other negotiating parties to consider 
other measures." Taking North Korea to the United Nations Security Council 
for the imposition of sanctions - a step China and South Korea are 
desperately trying to avoid - would be among those options, the official 
said.

The prospect that North Korea may be about to remove fuel from the reactor 
may also reinvigorate the long-running argument inside the Pentagon, the 
State Department and the National Security Council about whether the United 
States should take some kind of military or covert action to prevent the 
North from producing more bomb-grade fuel.

The nuclear facilities are particularly vulnerable when the reactor is being 
unloaded and the fuel is being cooled, a process that can take several 
months. After that, however, the fuel is relatively easy to move and hide, 
which is what happened after inspectors were thrown out in 2002. Mr. Bush 
has said the United States has no interest in attacking North Korea, and any 
strike at the nuclear plant would carry risks of retaliation.

Still, some Bush administration officials now ruefully recall the advice of 
Brent Scowcroft, the national security adviser under President Bush's 
father, who argued in the early 1990's that the United States should never 
let the North reprocess its fuel and become a nuclear power. "You could say 
that Brent correctly predicted exactly the scenario we are in now," one of 
the current President Bush's strategists on the issue said recently. "The 
North Koreans have been very smart about how they have gone about this."

*************************************************



2.      ROK REBUFFS US CONTINGENCY PLAN ON DPRK

by Jung Sung-ki, Korea Times, 15 April 2005



Seoul demanded that Washington stop formulating a military contingency plan 
for possible instability in North Korea, including the collapse of the 
communist regime, the Defence Ministry confirmed Friday. The National 
Security Council (NSC) asked the Korea-US Combined Forces Command (CFC) in 
Seoul last January to scrap an operational plan, code-named 5029-05, that 
laid out military responses to various levels of internal trouble in the 
North, ministry spokesman Shin Hyun-don said in a briefing.

The request came due to South Korean concerns that the plan infringed on its 
sovereignty and ability to ensure peace on the Korean Peninsula. Under the 
draft plan, the US military would take wartime command in case of an 
emergency in North Korea resulting from internal turmoil such as mass 
defections or revolt. South Korea has control of its military in peacetime.

"The government found it difficult to accept the plan as it stipulates 
military actions under US command in the event of internal crises in the 
North, not simply North Korean aggression against the country," a NSC 
official said. He is worried that "hasty" US military action could trigger a 
full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula.

The US government, however, has resisted Seoul's demand that the plan be 
scrapped, sources said. Washington stressed it is needed to prevent 
Pyongyang's weapons of mass destruction from being smuggled out of the 
country while it was embroiled in a domestic crisis, he said.

The 5029-05 is a development plan for the 5029-99, drawn up by the ROK-US 
CFC in 1999, Shin said. The 5029-99 included contingencies in case of mass 
defection after the possible collapse of the communist nation.

"We will closely negotiate the issue with the US so as not to undermine the 
Seoul-Washington alliance," the spokesman said.

Rep. Park Jin of the main opposition Grand National Party criticized the 
government for its unilateral decision to kill the plan. "The government 
should discuss the issue with the US with all options on the table." Park 
told The Korea Times. "Saying `no more discussion' in regards to the plan 
doses not serve our national interest, especially at a time when relations 
between Seoul and Washington have cooled."

Meanwhile, North Korea denounced what it describes as a provocative plan to 
wage war against it. "The purpose of the contingency plan is to conduct a 
pre-emptive attack against us," said an article on Uriminzokkiri, a 
Japan-based North Korean news Web site. The half-century military alliance 
between Seoul and Washington has shown signs of strain in recent months, 
affected by a series of developments between the two allies.

Defence Ministry last week revealed a document from Washington a year ago 
that notified Seoul of its decision to get rid of its war reserve stocks 
program, called the War Reserve Stocks Allies (WRSA), by 2006. The 
disclosure followed an announcement by the USFK last month that it will 
reduce its South Korean workforce by 1,000 at US military facilities by 
September to limit the cost of maintaining its troops here.

*************************************************



3.      ROK PRESIDENT ROH OPPOSES PRESSURE ON DPRK

by Joo Sang-min, Korea Herald, 15 April 2005



President Roh Moo-hyun opposes increasing pressure on North Korea to get it 
to end its nuclear ambitions, and says antagonizing the isolationist state 
will only aggravate the situation. In an interview with the German daily Die 
Welt during his stay in Germany, Roh spelled out his North Korean policy and 
also expressed optimism about the 30-month-old nuclear standoff.

"I am sceptical about the idea that increased pressure against North Korea 
will make the North discard its program. In reverse, (the pressure) could 
make the situation worse," Roh was quoted as saying.

His remarks came as some US hard-liners recently indicated Washington might 
apply further pressure on Pyongyang, including referring the issue to the UN 
Security Council if the North shows no willingness to return to the 
negotiating table.

Since the third round of six-party talks denuclearization talks last June, 
North Korea has been refusing to participate in another round of the 
discussions which group the two Koreas, the United States, China, Japan and 
Russia. The nuclear dispute became more tense after the North declared Feb. 
10 it possesses nuclear weapons and will boycott the talks indefinitely 
until the United States changes its hostile policy. Since then it has made 
further demands, including recognition by the United States. President Roh, 
however, reiterated his optimistic view of settling the standoff.

"We will mention sanctions when we believe there is no hope, but this is not 
the situation where there's no hope," Roh said. "There is possibility the 
North will come back to the negotiating table, and China has been doing its 
best for that. North Korea has neither said it cannot discard its nuclear 
programs whatsoever, nor has the United States said it will not recognize 
North Korea," he added.

Roh held a summit Wednesday with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder at 
which he reiterated South Korea will support Germany's bid for a permanent 
UN Security Council seat if such a reform plan ends up being approved. 
Earlier in the day, at a meeting with a group of Korean residents in 
Frankfurt, Roh said he sees little chances of a sudden collapse of the 
Pyongyang regime, an event that would not be welcomed by Seoul.

"Chances are very low that North Korea will collapse suddenly, and we don't 
have any intention to encourage it either," Roh said.

He said he believes the communist state has the structural ability to manage 
any contingencies. Roh hoped for a reunification different from Germany's 
experience, where the merging of West and East Germany cost vast sums of 
money and brought other problems.

"It would be good if the two Koreas are reunified through the form of 
national confederation, which is after South Korea establishes a peace 
structure and develops inter-Korean relations through bilateral cooperation, 
while North Korea builds the capacity for national unification," he said Roh 
was slated to fly to Turkey late yesterday for a four-day visit after 
winding up his five-day stay in Germany. He leaves for home on Sunday.

*************************************************



4.      DPRK DEALS A BLOW TO ARMS TALKS

by Joseph Kahn, New York Times, 11 April 2005



The North Korean government has disavowed a commitment to negotiate a 
step-by-step elimination of its nuclear weapons program with the Bush 
administration but may freeze the production of nuclear bombs under strict 
conditions, said an American specialist on North Korea who completed a visit 
there this weekend.

The specialist, Selig S. Harrison of the Center for International Policy in 
Washington, said in an interview that he had been informed by several 
top-ranking North Korean leaders that the United States must pledge to 
respect the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity before any 
freeze could be discussed. The Bush administration has rejected conditions 
for resuming negotiations.

"We have lost the opportunity to negotiate a step-by-step agreement that 
would lead to the eventual dismantling of their nuclear program," Mr. 
Harrison said in Beijing after returning from Pyongyang, North Korea's 
capital. "They are no longer willing to discuss that possibility."

Mr. Harrison has been critical of the Bush administration for not 
negotiating directly with the North Koreans. He has had a rare high-level 
access to the North Korean leadership. On his most recent visit, he said he 
met Kim Yong Nam, North Korea's second-highest official and the nominal head 
of state; Kang Sok Ju and Kim Gye Gwan, senior Foreign Ministry officials 
who oversee talks on the nuclear program; and Gen. Ri Chan Bok, who is in 
charge of North Korean forces at the truce village of Panmunjom at the 
border.

Although the North Koreans are willing to return to six-nation nuclear talks 
that have taken place under Chinese auspices, they are demanding that the 
United States apologize for Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's comment 
during Congressional hearings that North Korea was an "outpost of tyranny," 
Mr. Harrison said.

Some of the comments made to Mr. Harrison appear to echo a statement issued 
by North Korea on March 31, in which it declared itself a nuclear power and 
demanded that talks on reducing weapons on the Korean peninsula, including 
any weapons under control of American forces in South Korea, take place 
between the United States and North Korea on equal terms.

Mr. Harrison said this constituted a "major policy shift" that had taken 
place since his last visit to Pyongyang a year ago, adding that he 
attributed the shift to hard-line military elements that have exerted more 
control in recent months.

He quoted the North Korean officials as saying that they planned to unload 
plutonium fuel rods from their nuclear reactor at Yongbyon in coming weeks 
for the first time since 2002, giving them another 8,000 nuclear fuel rods.

Mr. Harrison said this could provide enough nuclear fuel to double their 
existing arsenal of bombs, which some American estimates now place at six to 
eight.

While that suggests an expansion of North Korea's nuclear program, Mr. 
Harrison said he was told that there were no plans to conduct a nuclear 
test. "They said they see no need to test and do not want to test because 
they are worried about the nuclear fallout, even of an underground test," he 
said.

*************************************************



5.      UNCHR PASSES DPRK RIGHTS RESOLUTION; ROK ABSTAINS

Chosun Ilbo, 14 April 2005



A resolution condemning human rights abuses in North Korea was passed by a 
comfortable margin by the UN Commission on Human Rights in Geneva on 
Thursday, despite abstention from Seoul, which is becoming a regular 
occurrence.

Korean Ambassador to Geneva Choi Hyuck cited a "special situation" between 
the two Koreas as the reason for abstaining. However, he told the meeting 
the South Korean government was concerned that North Korea showed no 
improvement in its human rights situation last year, adding it would 
continue its efforts to improve North Korean human rights by supporting 
reform in the Stalinist country and providing humanitarian aid and 
cooperation.

South Korean government officials said this year's resolution included a 
demand that North Korea stop human rights abuses, adding the UN would take 
the issue to its general assembly. It also featured a demand for Pyongyang 
to return abductees including those from Japan. The resolution was submitted 
by 45 nations including Japan and the European Union.

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6.      ROK WILLING TO HELP DPRK ECONOMY

Associate Press, 13 April 2005



South Korea is willing to help the North Korean economy, but no major aid 
will be provided until Pyongyang's nuclear problem is resolved, the office 
of South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun said Wednesday.

"We have a policy to actively support the North Korean economy stand on its 
feet," Roh told German leaders Tuesday, according to a statement from his 
office. "But only when the North's nuclear problem is resolved serious aid 
can be possible."

Despite the international standoff over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program, 
Seoul has remained firm in its stance that humanitarian aid to the North 
will continue. However, it has repeatedly stressed that no "major" aid will 
be provided until the nuclear problem was resolved. Roh said his government 
will continue supporting Pyongyang's efforts to reform and open without 
"shaking the North's stability," according to the statement.

"Even before unification, the South Korean people will probably not oppose 
to bearing the cost for the success of North Korea's economic reform and 
opening even if it is a little burdensome," Roh said.

Roh is on a five-day visit to Germany for talks with officials on the North 
Korea nuclear problem and economic ties between the two countries. The 
international talks aimed at ending its nuclear weapons ambitions haven't 
met since June. In February, the North claimed it had already developed 
nuclear weapons and would boycott the talks indefinitely.

The North, suffering from food shortages, relies heavily on outside aid to 
feed its people. The National Intelligence Service, South Korea's top spy 
agency, has said North Korea can only produce about 30 percent of the total 
fertilizer it needs annually. This year, the North has asked for 500,000 
tons from the South, the largest request.

Also on Wednesday, a South Korean defected in a fishing boat to North Korea 
despite 140 warning shots fired by the South's military to stop the vessel, 
a news agency said. The 57-year-old defector, identified only by his last 
name, Hwang, crossed the sea border into North Korea, South Korea's Yonhap 
news agency reported. Seoul will ask Pyongyang to help facilitate the boat's 
return, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement. Investigators will 
also look into the incident, it said. The shooting occurred just after 
Unification Minister Chung Dong-young toured the military base that fired 
the warning, Yonhap reported.

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7.      TWO KOREAS TO EXCHANGE WEASELS, HIPPOS ACROSS DMZ

Reuters, 13 April 2005



North and South Korea have arranged for an exchange of zoo animals, 
including Siberian weasels, near their hugely militarized border to bolster 
animal stocks in both states, zoo officials said Wednesday. Seoul Grand Park 
Zoo said the exchange with Pyongyang Central Zoo would take place Thursday 
at Kaesong, just north of the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone that 
bisects the peninsula.

Co-operation between North and South, which have remained technically at war 
since the inconclusive truce which halted the 1950-53 Korean conflict, is 
laced in symbolism. This will be their first official zoo animal exchange. 
The North was to send 16 animals, including Asiatic black bears, lynx, 
coyotes, African ponies and Siberian weasels, zoo officials said. The South 
would send 10, including hippopotamuses, red kangaroos, wallabies, guanacos 
and llamas, they added.

The eight black bears from the North are to be used for breeding purposes to 
help repopulate the species in the South and the other animals will go on 
display.

"Coyotes are rarely seen in the South. It will be a new experience for zoo 
visitors here to see them," Lee Won-hyo, the director-general of Seoul Grand 
Park Zoo, said by telephone.

The animals from the North must undergo a quarantine inspection before 
crossing over. South Korea has stepped up quarantine measures on the border 
following an outbreak of bird flu in Pyongyang that led the secretive 
communist state to cull over 210,000 chickens.

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FOCUS: Candidates for leadership succession



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8.      THE ODDS: AFTER KIM JONG IL

by Terrence Henry, The Atlantic Monthly, May 2005



When Kim Il Sung, the "president-for-life" of North Korea, turned sixty-two, 
in 1974, he decided that his son Kim Jong Il would succeed him. Kim Jong Il, 
who indeed took over when his father died, twenty years later, turned 
sixty-three in February. The North Korean media have recently been quoting 
words reportedly spoken by Kim Il Sung: if he himself could not carry out 
"the final victory of the Korean revolution," then his son would; and if his 
son couldn't, then his grandson would. Just weeks before his birthday, Kim 
Jong Il announced to North Korea that he would "uphold Father Leader's 
instructions" -- and so it is widely believed that the "Dear Leader" will 
soon name his own successor. Needless to say, Kim Jong Il's choice of who 
will complete the revolution is an important one, for North Koreans and for 
the world. Here are the candidates most likely to continue the Kim dynasty.

KIM JONG CHOL: The middle son (born 1981) of Kim Jong Il. His mother was the 
popular North Korean dancer Ko Yong Hui.

Why he might be the next Dear Leader: Jong Chol's mother, who died last 
year, seems to have been the subject of a glorification campaign by the 
state, which referred to her in recent years as "respected mother," "great 
woman," and "loyal subject to the Dear Leader." A similar campaign glorified 
Kim Jong Il's mother when he prepared to succeed his father. Ko Yong Hui was 
rumoured to have lobbied vigorously in behalf of her son, using her 
unusually strong influence on Kim Jong Il to secure a place for Jong Chol in 
the country's leadership and to banish Kim Jong Il's own brother-in-law --  
who had been considered a possible replacement for the Dear Leader -- from 
Pyongyang. (She also reportedly got Kim Jong Il to give up drinking.) Why he 
might not be: Kim Jong Il may not like his second son much. The dictator, 
according to his former sushi chef, who worked for him for more than a 
decade and has written two books about the experience, has called Jong Chol 
effeminate and said that he is "no good" because he is "too much like a 
girl."

Verdict: Front-runner. In late 2003 someone referred to as Paek Se Bong --  
which can be interpreted as "the New Peak of Mount Paektu" -- was named to 
Kim Jong Il's exclusive cabinet, and though there are no published photos of 
the "New Peak," some South Korean analysts speculate that it is Jong Chol. 
Mount Paektu is a sacred mountain in Korean mythology, and is known as Kim 
Jong Il's birthplace. Already one peak of the mountain has been named for 
Kim Jong Il, and so if Jong Chol is indeed the "New Peak," the moniker could 
mark him as next in line for the dictatorship. (Another point in Jong Chol's 
favour is that when Kim Jong Il was rising through the political ranks, he, 
too, was known by a secret code name: "the Party Center.") KIM JONG NAM: The 
oldest son (born 1971) of Kim Jong Il. His mother was the actress Song Hye 
Rim.

Why he might be the next Dear Leader: Jong Nam has held several key 
leadership positions in North Korea's secret police, army, and national 
political party, and he is thought to have brokered secret arms deals. In 
his youth he was the favourite of his father, who appreciated his love of 
the military. When Jong Nam turned twenty-four, his father gave him a 
soldier's uniform with the badges of a general on it. Ever since then he has 
been known in the People's Republic as "Comrade General." North Korean state 
television reported in January that his army unit assisted peasant farmers 
in the north by preparing "good-quality manure."

Why he might not be: Jong Nam's maternal relatives have a bad habit of 
defecting. Though his mother never did, his aunt and cousins defected. And 
Jong Nam has had his own trouble with borders: In 2001 he was deported from 
Japan for carrying a false passport from the Dominican Republic. He claimed 
he was going to Tokyo Disneyland; South Korean media reported rumours that 
he was in the country to arrange arms deals. Many analysts suspect he has 
fallen out of his father's favour after this embarrassing incident. Some 
South Korean media sources have reported that Jong Nam's two half brothers 
tried to have him assassinated while he was visiting Austria last year. And 
in 1997 a cousin was murdered in Seoul by a North Korean death squad after 
publishing a tell-all about the Kim dynasty.

Verdict: Close runner-up. Jong Nam remains the best-known of the possible 
heirs. He speaks several languages and is technologically savvy. But the 
Tokyo incident damaged his reputation, and last year he briefly corresponded 
with press outside the country, probably angering his father. Using a South 
Korean Yahoo e-mail account, he conducted a brief correspondence with 
several Japanese journalists. "Hello, I am Kim Jong Nam," he wrote. "The 
year-end and New Year are approaching. I wish you good health and 
happiness."

KIM JONG UN: The youngest (born 1983) of Kim Jong Il's three sons, and one 
of two he had with Ko Yong Hui.

Why he might be the next Dear Leader: Kim Jong Il's former sushi chef has 
said that Kim Jong Un is the most favoured of the three sons, because of his 
striking resemblance to his father.

Why he might not be: He doesn't appear to have held any significant 
positions in government, and tradition suggests that as the youngest son he 
is unlikely to be picked.

Verdict: Dark horse. Like Jong Chol, he no longer has his mother around to 
influence Kim Jong Il.

KIM SOL SONG: Kim Jong Il's daughter (born 1974). Her mother, Kim Yong Suk, 
was a typist.

Why she might be the next Dear Leader: Sol Song is the only one of the 
dictator's children whose mother is still alive and able to push for her 
succession. Trained in economics, she often accompanies Kim Jong Il on 
government trips, and he reportedly relies on her for advice.

Why she might not be: She's a woman in a society with a strong patriarchal 
tradition. Also, there has been no propaganda in the state media about her 
or her mother, who was reportedly replaced in Kim Jong Il's affections by Ko 
Yong Hui in the mid-1970s.

Verdict: Long shot. Confucian tradition favours passing on leadership to 
males only, and Kim Il Sung's wish was that the revolution continue through 
his grandson.

KIM HYON NAM: The illegitimate child (born 1972) of Kim Il Sung and his 
nurse, which makes him the half brother of Kim Jong Il, who arranged for 
Hyon Nam's adoption with the help of his now banished brother-in-law.

Why he might be the next Dear Leader: Three years ago he was named to a 
position of substantial power: head of the Propaganda and Agitation 
department of the Workers' Party. (Before then few North Koreans even knew 
of his existence.) Why he might not be: Hyon Nam's illegitimacy will most 
likely prevent Kim Jong Il from naming him over one of his own sons. Also, 
rumour has it that Hyon Nam was recently in a shootout with Kim Jong Chol in 
one of the family's palaces.

Verdict: Wild card. Seems an unlikely selection-but so did Kim Jong Il, who 
had to fight his more powerful uncle and more favoured half brother to 
become Dear Leader.

[Sources: Bradley Martin's Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader; 
South Korean and Japanese media reports]

*************************************************



End CanKor # 203



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CanKor is an electronic information service for readers interested in the 
issues of peace and security on the Korean peninsula, published by 
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