[Cankor] Report #253

[cankor at cankor.ca]

Dear readers.

We apologize to those who thought last week’s CanKor Report #252 was 
merely an advertisement of our CANKOR FUNDRAISING CAMPAIGN LAUNCH and 
missed the superb interview with three businessmen who do legitimate 
business with and in the DPRK.

As you will have read, CIDA is discontinuing our funding as of this 
month, just before the end of our fifth year of service.

We didn’t mean to sound too desperate about our financial situation, 
however. Please note that below this exciting e-mail message from your 
loyal servants, there beats the intrepid heart of CanKor Report #253.

Besides, things have already improved vastly. By week’s end we had 
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And BEST NEWS OF ALL:

If you visit our slightly updated (if outdated) website www.CanKor.ca, 
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very quick and easy, which is the way we would like to raise the 
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We will also offer ways for you to avoid paying a subscription fee. For 
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Here is an example, taken from an e-mail we received from the Canadian 
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“CIDA believes CanKor has made a useful contribution to greater 
awareness and understanding of DPRK issues internationally.”

If you have ever visited the CanKor website, you will have seen the 
following two entries. Please note that both find CanKor “indispensable”!

“CanKor is a fair-minded and indispensable source of information on 
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perspective.” Marcus Noland, author of “Avoiding the Apocalypse: The 
Future of the Two Koreas.”

“I find CanKor to be an indispensable source for keeping up with North 
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“Korea’s Place in the Sun: A Modern History.”

What do you say?

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The CanKor team.

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CANADA-KOREA ELECTRONIC INFORMATION SERVICE

CanKor # 253

Friday, 23 June 2006
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US satellite surveillance suggests the DPRK may have finished fueling a 
Taepodong-2 missile, and could be preparing a test launch. The 
self-imposed 1999 moratorium on testing long-range missiles no longer 
applies, say Pyongyang officials, since there is no ongoing dialogue 
with Washington.
“Our position is that we should resolve the issue through negotiations," 
says DPRK Ambassador to the UN Han Song Ryol.

A missile threat isn't the way to seek dialogue, counters John Bolton, 
US Ambassador to the UN. US National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley 
says signs of a possible launch remain uncertain. Meanwhile, the 
Pentagon moves ground-based interceptor missile defense systems from 
test mode to operational.

Japan joins the USA in saying they could consider sanctions if the DPRK 
goes ahead with the launch. Former ROK President Kim Dae-jung cancels 
his visit to Pyongyang and the Ministry of Unification warns that South 
Korea’s planned shipment of 200,000 tons of fertilizer could be halted, 
should a missile be launched.

Amid increasing tensions, Republican congressman Mark Kirk calls for US 
and DPRK governments to cooperate on family reunions. Sharp political 
tensions should not overshadow thousands of elderly Korean-Americans 
desperate to be reunited with family members in the DPRK.

Rounding out this full-edition FOCUS on the suspected preparations for a 
DPRK missile launch, is a CanKor OPINION piece by Ralph Cossa, President 
of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Hawaii.
“Fire away,” writes Cossa, addressing Pyongyang. “Who knows, it may 
actually give the other members of the Six-Party Talks the backbone 
required (and currently conspicuously absent) to finally get tough with 
Pyongyang and move the stalled denuclearization process forward.”
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FOCUS: Suspected preparations for a DPRK missile launch

1. TENSIONS RISE OVER POSSIBLE TEST-LAUNCH IN KOREA
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/21/world/asia/21cnd-korea.html?hp&ex=1150948800&en=0371c1ecbeea215e&ei=5094&partner=homepage

2. US SAYS NO TO TALKS WITH NORTH KOREA
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060621/ap_on_re_as/nkorea_missile_test_35

3. US MAKES MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM OPERATIONAL
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060620/us_nm/arms_usa_missile_dc_2

4. A LOOK AT THE DPRK’S MISSILE ARSENAL
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-5902362,00.html

5. CONGRESSMAN LINKS US AND DPRK ON FAMILY REUNIONS
www.saemsori.org

OPINION

6. MISSILE TEST: WILL THEY OR WON’T THEY?
http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,3302/

QUIDNUNC: Readers ask and respond to common and uncommon questions

THIS WEEK: When and where did the last round of bilateral missile 
negotiations occur between the USA and the DPRK and what were the results?
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1. TENSIONS RISE OVER POSSIBLE TEST-LAUNCH IN KOREA
by Choe Sang-Hun, International Herald Tribune, 21 June 2006

International tensions continued to mount over North Korea's apparent 
intention to test-launch a long-range missile, as the American 
ambassador to Japan warned that "all options are on the table" if the 
test goes ahead and the former South Korean president, Kim Dae Jung, 
scrapped plans to visit North Korea next week. The United States and 
Japan have repeatedly warned North Korea to refrain from testing the 
missile system, called the Taepodong-2, which is thought to be capable 
of reaching parts of the United States. On Tuesday, North Korea 
disavowed a 1999 promise not to conduct further missile tests. It was 
hoped that Kim Dae-Jung, who held an unprecedented summit meeting with 
the North Korean leader, Kim Il-Sung, in 2000, might be able to meet 
with Kim Il-Sung in Pyongyang and persuade him to end the standoff.

But Han Song Ryol, North Korea's deputy chief of mission at the United 
Nations in New York, told the Yonhap news agency of South Korea that the 
North "as a sovereign country has the right to export missiles, as well 
as the right to develop, deploy and test them."

"We know that the US is concerned about our missile test launch," Mr. 
Han was quoted as saying. "So our position is, why don't we try to 
resolve this problem through negotiations?"

Speaking at a European Union summit in Vienna today, President Bush said 
that North Korea should continue to abide by the moratorium on missile 
tests that it announced in 1999.

"North Korea has made agreements with us in the past, and we expect them 
to keep their agreements," Mr. Bush said. "It should make people nervous 
when a nontransparent regime that has proclaimed they have nuclear 
warheads fires missiles."

He praised China for calling on North Korea to refrain from testing the 
missile system, and said that he had discussed the issue with Russia's 
president, Vladimir Putin. South Korean officials are worried that the 
process of inter-Korean reconciliation that has been built up gradually 
over the past several years may be derailed by the missile dispute. They 
said they were not sure whether the Taepodong-2 system was meant to test 
an offensive missile or to put a satellite into orbit. Either way, a 
launching would pose a grave danger, because it would mean the North was 
developing the capability to deliver weapons payloads to targets as far 
away as Alaska, they said.

North Korean diplomats in New York and Pyongyang said that the 1999 
missile test moratorium applied only while Washington was engaged in 
bilateral negotiations with the North. If the United States wanted to 
avert a potential crisis, they said, it should open talks with North 
Korea. Hours after the North Korean statement was reported, the American 
ambassador in Tokyo, J. Thomas Schieffer, brushed it aside, saying the 
United States would meet with North Korea only within the framework of 
six-party nuclear disarmament talks that also include China, Russia, 
Japan and South Korea. The North has been boycotting those talks since 
November.

"They have the opportunity to do that through the six-party talks," 
Schieffer said of the North's expressed desire for negotiations over the 
missile issue, according to news service dispatches. "They don't have to 
take bad policies to talk to the United States."

Asked if the United States would try to shoot down a North Korean 
missile, Schieffer did not respond directly. "We have greater 
technological means of tracking it than in the past, and we have options 
we have not had in the past," he said, without elaborating. "All options 
are on the table."

Scrutinizing the North Korean overture, officials and analysts in Seoul 
said that North Korea, having captured the world's attention, may now be 
seeking a face-saving way of winding down its preparations for a missile 
launch. Or it may be trying to go ahead with the launch, but have 
Washington bear the blame for the diplomatic breakdown. In Seoul, where 
the government faces growing political pressure to act more 
aggressively, the unification minister, Lee Jong Seok, told opposition 
lawmakers that a missile launch would force South Korea to decrease rice 
and fertilizer aid to the impoverished North. South Korean and American 
officials say that intelligence reports indicate North Korea has 
assembled a multistage rocket system at its Musudan-Ri launching pad, 
but they are not sure if it has been completely fueled yet.

"There is little chance that the United States will make concessions, 
even if the North succeeds in a test fire," said Lee Sang Hyun at the 
Sejong Institute in South Korea, "because it doesn't yet pose any direct 
security threat to the United States."
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2. US SAYS NO TO TALKS WITH NORTH KOREA
by Burt Herman, Associated Press (AP), 21 June 2006

North Korea said Wednesday it wants direct talks with the United States 
over its apparent plans to test-fire a long-range missile, but a top US 
envoy rejected the request. North Korea this week issued a bristling 
declaration of its right to carry out the launch and said US concerns 
should be resolved through negotiations. US Ambassador to the United 
Nations John Bolton said a missile threat wasn't the way to seek dialogue.

"You don't normally engage in conversations by threatening to launch 
intercontinental ballistic missiles, and it's not a way to produce a 
conversation because if you acquiesce in aberrant behavior, you simply 
encourage the repetition of it, which we're obviously not going to do," 
Bolton told reporters at UN headquarters in New York. President Bush 
said North Korea faces further isolation from the international 
community if it test-fires the missile believed capable of reaching US soil.

"It should make people nervous when non-transparent regimes who have 
announced they have nuclear warheads, fire missiles," Bush said at a 
meeting with European leaders in Vienna, Austria. "This is not the way 
you conduct business in the world."

The US and Japan have said they could consider sanctions against North 
Korea if it goes ahead with the launch, and Washington was weighing 
responses that could include attempting to shoot down the missile. A 
spokesman for former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung cited the 
missile crisis as the reason for canceling a trip next week to the North 
that could have offered a rare chance for talks to soothe tensions. 
South Korea also said that its humanitarian aid to North Korea might be 
affected by such a test.

"If North Korea test-fires a missile, it might have an impact on aid of 
rice and fertilizer to North Korea," South Korean Unification Minister 
Lee Jong-seok told opposition lawmakers, according to his spokesman. 
South Korea has shipped 150,000 tons of fertilizer this year and had 
planned to send another 200,000 tons. Pyongyang has asked for 500,000 
tons of rice this year, but Seoul has yet to agree. At the Vienna 
summit, Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel said that if North Korea 
fires the missile, Europe would join the United States in condemning it.

"There will be a strong statement, strong answer from the international 
community and Europe will be part of it," Schuessel said. Bolton said he 
was continuing discussions with UN Security Council members on possible 
action. "Obviously the priority remains trying to persuade North Korea 
not to conduct the launch," he said.

North Korea shocked the world in 1998 when it fired a missile that flew 
over northern Japan into the Pacific. Intelligence reports say the North 
has fueled a Taepodong-2 missile with a range experts estimate at up to 
9,300 miles — making it capable of reaching parts of the United States. 
North Korea claims it has nuclear weapons, but isn't believed to have a 
design that would be small and light enough to top a missile. After the 
1998 missile test, the Security Council issued a press statement, its 
mildest comment. Bolton said there would be a stronger council reaction 
this time.

"We're seeing broad support for something stronger," he said.

As countries urged Pyongyang not to conduct the test, the chief of staff 
of China's military met with an army commander from North Korea and the 
North's ambassador to China, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. 
The Chinese military chief, Liang Guanglie, told North Korean army 
commander Ri Yong Hwan that China was eager to expand cooperation 
between the two armed forces, Xinhua said. The brief report did not 
mention the apparent missile test plans.

North Korea said in comments published Wednesday that its self-imposed 
1999 moratorium on testing long-range missiles no longer applies because 
it's not in direct dialogue with Washington, suggesting it would hold 
off on any launch if Washington agreed to new talks.

"Some say our missile test launch is a violation of the moratorium, but 
this is not the case," Han Song Ryol, deputy chief of North Korea's 
mission to the United Nations, told South Korea's Yonhap news agency in 
an interview from New York. "North Korea as a sovereign state has the 
right to develop, deploy, test-fire and export a missile," he said. "We 
are aware of the US concerns about our missile test-launch. So our 
position is that we should resolve the issue through negotiations."

Pyongyang has consistently pressed for direct dialogue with the United 
States, while Washington insists it will only speak to the North at 
six-nation nuclear talks. The North has refused to return to those 
nuclear talks since November because of a US crackdown on the country's 
alleged illicit financial activity. US Ambassador to Japan Thomas 
Scheiffer said the United States has means of responding to a North 
Korean missile test that it didn't have in 1998, and is considering "all 
options." Defense officials in Washington told The Associated Press that 
the White House was weighing responses to a missile launch that could 
include trying to shoot it down while in flight over the Pacific. Such a 
move was considered unlikely, however.

On Tuesday, North Korea asserted its right to test-fire missiles in a 
sharply worded statement to Japanese reporters in Pyongyang.

"This issue concerns our autonomy. Nobody has a right to slander that 
right," the Kyodo News agency quoted North Korean Foreign Ministry 
official Ri Pyong Dok as saying.

During a 2002 summit with Japan, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il signed 
an agreement to extend the 1999 moratorium until at least 2003 — and 
reaffirmed the launch ban at another summit in 2004. Kim Dae-jung met 
Kim Jong Il in June 2000 in the first, and only, summit between leaders 
of the divided Koreas. The two Kims had been expected to meet again 
during next week's scheduled four-day visit. US National Security 
Adviser Stephen Hadley said signs of a possible North Korean launch 
remained uncertain.

"They seem to be moving toward a launch, but the intelligence is not 
conclusive at this point," Hadley told reporters on Air Force One on the 
way to Europe. Bad weather at the launch site Wednesday dimmed chances 
of an immediate test.

Associated Press reporters Jae-soon Chang and Kwang-tae Kim in Seoul, 
Hiroko Tabuchi and Joseph Coleman in Tokyo, Jennifer Loven in Vienna, 
Austria, and Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations contributed to this 
report.
*************************************************

3. US MAKES MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM OPERATIONAL
by Will Dunham, Reuters, 20 June 2006

The United States has moved its ground-based interceptor missile defense 
system from test mode to operational amid concerns over an expected 
North Korean missile launch, a US defense official said on Tuesday. The 
official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed a Washington 
Times report that the Pentagon has activated the system, which has been 
in the developmental stage for years.

"It's good to be ready," the official said.

US officials say evidence such as satellite pictures suggests Pyongyang 
may have finished fueling a Taepodong-2 missile, which some experts said 
could reach as far as Alaska.

"There's real caution in how to characterize it so as to not be 
provocative in our own approach," the defense official said of the move 
to activate the system.

The Pentagon and State Department have said a North Korean missile 
launch would be seen as "provocative." While military officials also 
note the United States has a limited missile defense system, they have 
so far declined to comment on any details about the capabilities or 
potential use of the system to intercept a North Korean missile.
*************************************************

4. A LOOK AT THE DPRK’S MISSILE ARSENAL
Associated Press (AP), 21 June 2006

North Korea is believed to have an arsenal of ballistic missiles and has 
claimed to have a nuclear weapon. It isn't believed to have a nuclear 
bomb small and light enough to be carried by a missile. A look at some 
of the missiles the communist nation is believed to control.

• TAEPODONG-2: Believed to be North Korea's most advanced missile, with 
a range as long as 9,320 miles. Experts estimate it could potentially 
hit the mainland United States with a small payload. However, the 
missile is unlikely to be accurate.

• TAEPODONG-1: North Korea is believed to have test-launched this 
long-range missile in August 1998. The second stage landed off Japan's 
eastern coast. The missile, with an estimated range of up to 1,800 
miles, is believed capable of striking any part of Japan.

• NODONG: As many as 200 Nodong missiles are in North Korea's arsenal. 
With a range of about 620 miles, Japan is their most likely target. The 
missiles can be fired from mobile launchers and have been sold abroad.

• SCUD: North Korea is believed to have more than 600 Scud-type missiles 
that are relatively short-range and would potentially target South Korea.

Sources: Globalsecurity.org, Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
*************************************************

5. CONGRESSMAN LINKS US AND DPRK ON FAMILY REUNIONS
Saemsori Press Release, 20 June 2006

A Republican congressman today called for the United States and the 
North Korean governments to cooperate on family reunions, noting that 
sharp political tensions should not overshadow thousands of 
Korean-Americans desperate to find families missing for over 50 years in 
North Korea.

“The people involved are now in their 70s and 80s and do not have much 
time left,” wrote Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) in his letters to the North 
Korean ambassador to the United Nations and to the US State Department. 
“For their sake, it is time to find a way to work together on this 
humanitarian problem, separate from all other political concerns.”

Rep. Kirk sent formal requests to the US and North Korean governments on 
behalf of Chicago librarian Cha-hee Lee Stanfield, linking the two 
governments on family reunions through an individual constituent case. 
Ms. Stanfield last saw her father and brother over 50 years ago.

“I was scared to contact North Korea by myself,” said Ms. Stanfield. “I 
am an American citizen—only the US government can protect me. Before 
Mark Kirk got involved, there was nowhere I could turn for help.” 
Without diplomatic relations or an embassy to North Korea, Ms. Stanfield 
did not even know where she could go to register her name for a reunion. 
Ms. Stanfield is part of a nationwide campaign, called Saemsori, to ask 
the United States to negotiate officially with North Korea on family 
reunions.

“These are vulnerable and elderly American citizens, desperate to see 
their families before they die,” said Saemsori director Alice Suh. “They 
need a safe and transparent way, through the US government, to present 
their cases to North Korea. They should not be making these contacts by 
themselves.”

In the absence of an official channel for family contacts, Saemsori has 
sought indirect channels by connecting individual constituents to 
members of Congress. Their offices then contact both the US and North 
Korean governments on behalf of constituents, and may be more likely to 
receive a response. The campaign is currently collecting data on divided 
families to raise awareness on this issue. Saemsori has received 
endorsements from over 15 US senators and representatives.
*************************************************

OPINION

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6. MISSILE TEST: WILL THEY OR WON’T THEY?
by Ralph A. Cossa, Pacific Forum CSIS, PacNet 28, 20 June 2006

Will they or won’t they? That seems to be the big question dominating 
the news these days. Will North Korea launch a Taepodong missile, either 
as an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test or in an attempt to 
launch a satellite (as they claimed during their last launch in 1998)?

No one knows! And, trying to predict Pyongyang’s behavior is a fool’s 
task. But I, for one, hope that they do conduct a test, for a number of 
reasons.

Before explaining, it is worth pointing out an unpleasant fact that most 
critics seem to be ignoring: North Korea, like the US or China, or even 
Kazakhstan (which launched its first communications satellite earlier in 
the month with little or no fanfare) has a right to conduct missile 
tests or satellite launches. There are certain international protocols 
that should be followed – notice to mariners, airspace closures, prior 
notifications, etc. – but a missile launch per se is not an illegal or 
necessarily hostile act.

Keep in mind also that North Korea’s current moratorium is self-imposed; 
it was initiated in 1999 and was to run as long as missile talks between 
Washington and Pyongyang continued . . . which they have not.

True, in the 2002 “Pyongyang Declaration” signed by Japanese Prime 
Minister Junichiro Koizumi and North Korean “Dear Leader” Chairman Kim 
Jong-il, both leaders pledged they “would not commit conducts 
threatening the security of the other side” and “confirmed the necessity 
of resolving security problems including nuclear and missile issues by 
promoting dialogues among countries concerned.” This hardly sounds like 
a binding agreement and, again, little dialogue is currently taking 
place (although both Washington and Tokyo have expressed willingness to 
enter into bilateral talks with Pyongyang, within the context of the 
Six-Party Talks – it is only the DPRK that refuses to come back to the 
Talks).

For what it is worth, while it does reaffirm the 2002 Pyongyang 
Declaration, there is really absolutely nothing in the September 2005 
Six-Party Talks Joint Statement regarding missile tests. Nonetheless, 
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has claimed that a missile test puts 
that agreement in jeopardy since the moratorium “is clearly a part of 
the framework agreement that was signed in September of this past year 
between the six parties.”

Having said all that, there is no question that a missile launch, even 
if designed to put a satellite in orbit, would be seen as saber-rattling 
at a particularly sensitive sign and at least three members of the 
six-way talks – the US, Japan, and South Korea – have firmly stated that 
a test would be a threat to regional stability and undermine the spirit 
of cooperation embodied in the September 2005 Joint Statement, and would 
thus have “severe consequences.” China has been conspicuously silent; 
The People’s Daily is the only regional newspaper that seems unaware of 
missile test preparations.

So, if a test, while legal, would be so provocative, why am I for it? 
Primarily because it would, perhaps for the first time in several years, 
bring Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul back into agreement on dealing more 
firmly with North Korea. It would no doubt compel Seoul to cancel the 
planned trip of former President Kim Dae-jung to North Korea, a trip 
that can only add to the illusion of (false) progress in North-South 
relations, even though little is being accomplished beyond increased 
handouts and non-reciprocated gestures.

One presumes that even Beijing, despite its silence, may also finally 
see the wisdom in taking a harder line against Pyongyang in the wake of 
a missile launch, something Washington has been asking for months (if 
not years), to no avail. Until and unless Beijing and Seoul are prepared 
to join Washington and Tokyo in taking a firm stance against Pyongyang’s 
foot-dragging and saber-rattling, there is little incentive for North 
Korea to change its behavior. (Apologies to Moscow; Russian support is 
also useful, but not nearly as critical.)

Finally, there is the question (at least in this author’s mind) as to 
whether or not Pyongyang is even capable of successfully firing a 
multi-stage missile. Recall that the 1998 test failed. A missile launch 
would be a windfall to the American intelligence community, which 
continues to only guess at the Taepodong’s capabilities.

Even if no missile is fired, a “test” is already being conducted. The 
presence (if reports are true) of an ICBM on a launch pad in a country 
with a declared nuclear (and presumed chemical and biological) weapons 
capability and a declared hostile policy toward the United States and 
Japan, constitutes a test of the US doctrine of preemption, which calls 
for US military forces to respond if a potential weapons of mass 
destruction (WMD) attack appears imminent. I am neither predicting nor 
advocating a preemptive attack – such an action would be 
counter-productive – but merely noting that, unlike Iraq, Washington’s 
criteria is being met in this instance, something Pyongyang likely 
factored into its actions.

While the Bush administration has not threatened a preemptive strike, it 
has indicated that its missile defense system has been activated and is 
on alert for what could be its first real life test; if one questions 
North Korea’s ability to launch a missile, questions equally abound 
about America’s ability to shoot one down.

So, to Pyongyang I say “fire away.” Who knows, it may actually give the 
other members of the Six-Party Talks the backbone required (and 
currently conspicuously absent) to finally get tough with Pyongyang and 
move the stalled denuclearization process forward.
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QUIDNUNC
In this section of CanKor, we invite readers to send questions, answers, 
or responses. Answers should be under 150 words and may be edited for 
space.
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WHAT NOW?
When and where did the last round of bilateral missile negotiations 
occur between the USA and the DPRK and what were the results?

[Answers should be e-mailed to: editor at CanKor.ca]
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End CanKor # 253

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