From cankor at nautilus.org Wed Apr 4 08:33:04 2007 From: cankor at nautilus.org (cankor@nautilus.org) Date: Wed Apr 4 07:47:29 2007 Subject: Cankor Report #279 Message-ID: WHAT READERS SAY ABOUT THE CANKOR REPORT: "Let me take this opportunity to say that I really appreciate the information I receive via CanKor. It comes from a slightly different angle than DPRK-related news that I get from other sources. I appreciate being kept up with the links to Canada as well as other international foci. I appreciate the way it is organized by theme and pulled together in a way that makes the information more useful because it is so organized. Keep up the good work!" Betsy H. McCrae, East Asia Department, Mennonite Central Committee, Akron, PA, USA. Dear friends, CanKor is a reader-supported e-publication and website. We believe that an informed public will draw its own conclusions about what needs to be done to bring peace and security to the Korean Peninsula, and that decision-makers will benefit from the debates and analyses of experts made accessible through the CanKor Report. We do not charge a subscription fee, but request financial contributions from those who are able. We thank readers who have sent donations to CanKor. Those who have not yet had the time to contribute but wish to do so, please refer to the bottom of this Report for instructions. We issue receipts for all donations received. With best wishes, The CanKor team. ************************************************* CANADA-KOREA ELECTRONIC INFORMATION SERVICE CanKor # 279 Friday, 30 March 2007 ************************************************* The DPRK expresses its annual objection to the annual USA-ROK military manoeuvres, which Pyongyang sees as aggressive rather than defensive. Threats that they could derail progress in the Six-Party Talks seem gratuitous in view of the fact that the talks are currently in recess and unlikely to reconvene before the end of the military exercizes. The Subcommittee on International Human Rights of the Canadian House of Commons passes a private member resolution calling on Japan to apologize for its treatment of "comfort women" during World War II and compensate the victims. This follows similar moves in the USA and Germany. This week's CanKor FOCUS examines the humanitarian issues that have resurfaced in the DPRK. Among these are a measles epidemic, a foot and mouth outbreak, and food shortages the UN estimates at close to a million metric tons. The United Nations World Food Programme says that the DPRK is asking for international assistance, just two years after it had declared itself no longer in need of food aid. The ROK resumes shipments of blankets, disinfectants, fertilizer, cement and rice. Russia and the EU have independently indicated a willingness to supply humanitarian aid. In our RESOURCES section, Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland introduce to CanKor readers their new book, entitled "Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid and Reform." ************************************************* Contents: 1. DPRK ASSAILS ROK-USA JOINT MILITARY MANEUVERS http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2007/200703/news03/23.htm#2 2. MILITARY EXERCIZES COULD AFFECT SIX-PARTY TALKS http://en.rian.ru/world/20070326/62607726.html 3. CANADIAN PARLIAMENTARIANS SEEK TO CENSURE JAPAN http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200703/200703300007.html FOCUS: Humanitarian concerns resurface in DPRK 4. DPRK PLEADS FOR UN FOOD ASSISTANCE http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070329.FOOD29/TPStory/TPInternational/Asia/ 5. ROK RESUMES AID SHIPMENTS TO DPRK http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200703/200703290023.html 6. EPIDEMICS ON THE RISE IN NORTH KOREA http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?biid=2007013113448 7. DPRK MEASLES EPIDEMIC REQUEST FOR ASSISTANCE http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/JBRN-6YUJTX?OpenDocument 8. LIVESTOCK SLAUGHTERED AFTER FOOT AND MOUTH OUTBREAK http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-NKorea-Cattle.html 9. RUSSIA HINTS AT SEPARATE AID TO DPRK http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/Engnews/20070306/630000000020070306224345E2.html 10. EUROPEAN UNION READY TO HELP WHEN ASKED http://english.ohmynews.com/ArticleView/article_view.asp?menu=A11100&no=352812&rel_no=1&back_url RESOURCES 11. FAMINE IN NORTH KOREA: MARKETS, AID AND REFORM Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland introduce their new book to CanKor readers. ************************************************* 1. DPRK ASSAILS ROK-USA JOINT MILITARY MANEUVERS Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), 22 March 2007 A spokesman for the DPRK Foreign Ministry gave the following answer to the question put by KCNA on March 22 as regards the projected USA-south Korea RSOI and Foal Eagle joint military exercises: As already reported, the USA and south Korea are going to stage RSOI and Foal Eagle joint military exercises across south Korea from March 25. These are very dangerous provocations casting shadow over the implementation of an agreement adopted with much effort at the six-party talks on February 13 and the progress of the talks. The DPRK cannot but suspect an ulterior aim sought by the US and the south Korean authorities in talking about the "reconciliation and improved relations," "peace and stability" while planning to stage the large-scale military exercises targeted against the dialogue partner. Dialogue and saber-rattling cannot go together. The US and south Korean war-like forces will be wholly responsible for all the adverse consequences to be entailed by their provocative military actions. ************************************************* 2. MILITARY EXERCIZES COULD AFFECT SIX-PARTY TALKS RIA Novosti News Agency, 26 March 2007 Joint USA-South Korea military exercises could have serious consequences for the six-nation nuclear disarmament talks on the Korean peninsula, a North Korean newspaper said Monday. The United States and South Korea have been conducting joint staff exercises named RSOI (Reception, Staging, Onward Movement and Integration) since March 25. The exercises will be combined with large-scale maneuvers Toksuri -- Foal Eagle, traditionally seen by Pyongyang as a war rehearsal on the Korean peninsula. An article published in Nodong Sinmun said that North Korea could no longer trust the United States and was being forced to fully prepare for any scenario. According to the newspaper, the preparations will include building up military containment forces. (...) ************************************************* 3. CANADIAN PARLIAMENTARIANS SEEK TO CENSURE JAPAN Chosun Ilbo, 30 March 2007 A chorus of voices vehemently criticizing the Japanese government for its denial of responsibility for the sexual enslavement of women during World War II has been raised around the world. Following moves by the USA, Germany and Canada have condemned the denials and called for action. The Canadian Parliament is pushing for the passage of a resolution calling for Japan to apologize for its "comfort women" atrocities and compensate the victims. The bill was submitted by New Democratic Party Rep. Wayne Marston. A motion passed Tuesday in a vote of four to three by the Subcommittee on International Human Rights under the Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development of the Canadian House of Commons. Marston said, "Prime Minister Abe must be pressured to formally apologize and to institute a program to compensate the 50,000 to 200,000 women who were forced to serve in military brothels during World War II." The German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung criticized Abe on Wednesday for openly denying the responsibility of the Imperial Japanese Army in enslaving women. In a column entitled "Historisches Versaeumnis (Historical Omission)," the newspaper accused Abe of making a calculated bid to recover from a loss of public confidence after suffering internal setbacks. The column says Abe seems to believe that although his statements may rub salt in the wounds of the former comfort women, he could perhaps win support from the Japanese people for his nationalistic stance. Meanwhile, the latest issue of the Asian edition of Newsweek magazine includes a column that downplays Japan's wartime atrocities. The article by right-wing Japanese historian Hideaki Kase says, "US Army records in 1944 explicitly declare that the comfort women were prostitutes." Yonhap News reported that Newsweek has been inundated with mail and phone calls from readers calling for the dismissal of its editor or a boycott of the magazine. A report filed by the US Office of Strategic Services (OSS) in May 1945 states that 25 Korean women who escaped from a Japanese military unit in Kunming, China, and surrendered to the Chinese Army, had become sex slaves "apparently under compulsion and misrepresentation." Kase seems to have disregarded the full context of the report and deliberately distorted the facts by claiming Korean women volunteered to serve as comfort women. The Japanese daily Mainichi Shimbun reported Thursday that Abe has been trying to move past the comfort women issue but has been unsuccessful because his associates, including Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Hakubun Shimomura, keep making provocative remarks. ************************************************* FOCUS: Humanitarian concerns resurface in DPRK ************************************************* 4. DPRK PLEADS FOR UN FOOD ASSISTANCE Geoffrey York, Globe and Mail, 29 March 2007 For the first time since its catastrophic famine of the mid-1990s, North Korea is admitting that it has a severe food shortage and needs help from the outside world. The request for help is a humiliating step for the secretive nuclear-armed nation. Just two years ago, North Korea announced that it was self-sufficient and didn't need any further aid from the United Nations food agency. But now it has abruptly reversed itself and acknowledged a serious shortage. In meetings in Pyongyang this week, North Korean officials asked for greater assistance from the UN's World Food Programme. For the first time, they confirmed the WFP's estimate that the country's food shortfall -- the gap between what it produces and what its people need -- is about a million metric tons. "The food situation is deteriorating," said Tony Banbury, the WFP's regional director for Asia, after returning from a five-day visit to the isolated Stalinist country this week. "It's precarious and it's clearly headed in the wrong direction," he told a news conference in Beijing yesterday. "We're losing the fight against hunger... If donors do not respond to the request, millions of people are going to go hungry." About half of North Korea's population of 23 million people will need donated food this year, yet the WFP can help only 3 per cent of the population because of a shortage of international aid. North Korea's nuclear weapons programme, which culminated in a nuclear test last fall, has angered many of its traditional food donors, triggering a sharp reduction -- 75 per cent in the past year -- in the flow of food aid to the country. The WFP was hoping to provide aid to 1.9 million North Koreans this year, but the lack of donations has forced it to scale back to only 700,000 people. In the famine of the mid-1990s, up to 2.5 million North Koreans are believed to have perished. The food shortage today has not reached that level, but some observers are worried that the isolated country could be headed for a famine. Devastating floods last year have also damaged the country's food supply. A survey in 2004 found that 37 per cent of North Korean children were chronically malnourished. The government has not permitted any surveys since then. But in their field mission this week, the WFP officials saw evidence of malnutrition among children in every school and orphanage that they visited. They also saw a severe shortage of tractors, fertilizers, pesticides and other modern farm technology. Instead of plowing their farmland with tractors, the farmers were using shovels to turn the land by hand, Mr. Banbury said. The WFP believes it is highly significant that North Korea has now decided to ask for assistance. In a nation with an official philosophy of self-sufficiency, where massive resources have been diverted into its nuclear programme, the regime has long refused to make a formal request for food aid, although it has accepted large donations from China and South Korea. "I think it's the first time since 1995 that they are publicly admitting that there is a food deficit, and certainly it's the first time since 1995 where they're asking for external assistance," said Jean-Pierre de Margerie, a Canadian aid worker who heads the WFP operations in North Korea. "In the North Korean environment, I think that's a key sign," he said. "They rarely admit there is a humanitarian crisis, or that they need foreign assistance. They have their pride." The latest food shortage is emerging at the worst possible time of year, the "lean season" of the spring, when food from the fall harvest is depleted. Infant mortality could increase if the hunger continues, Mr. Banbury said. "We are far from meeting the food needs of the most vulnerable people." ************************************************* 5. ROK RESUMES AID SHIPMENTS TO DPRK Chosun Ilbo, 29 March 2007 South Korean aid shipments to North Korea resumed in full swing after video reunions of separated families began on Tuesday. The government sent 60,000 blankets to North Korea on Wednesday. The shipment of blankets, part of a flood relief campaign, was halted after Pyongyang conducted a nuclear test last October. The shipment also included 11 other relief items including disinfectants for the prevention of foot-and-mouth disease. Some 15,000 tons of rice and 70,000 tons of cement will go north next month. A ship carrying 6,500 tons of fertilizer left Yeosu port for North Korea on Wednesday, part of 300,000 tons of fertilizer due to be sent to the North by late June. The provision of fertilizer will cost W108 billion (US$1=W939) including freight fees. North Korea asked the South Korean Red Cross to offer fertilizer aid on March 7. The government will provide North Korea with some W3.5 billion of materials and W400 million in cash for the construction of a family reunion center equipped with video facilities. Originally the South was supposed to provide LCD monitors for the center, but the USA has banned shipments of LCD monitors to North Korea, so the cash will go to buying LCD monitors from China. The two sides will discuss when and how 400,000 tons of rice worth W200 billion will be sent across the border at a meeting of the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Committee which will open in Pyongyang on April 18. ************************************************* 6. EPIDEMICS ON THE RISE IN NORTH KOREA Donga Ilbo, 31 January 2007 Infectious diseases such as scarlet fever and measles are on the rise in North Korea, according to recent reports, adding to the severe economic hardships North Koreans are suffering. North Koreans interviewed by the Dong-A Ilbo said that the North Korean authorities are sitting on their hands and not moving quickly to handle the outbreak of the diseases in Pyongyang and provincial areas due to a lack of medicine. Scarlet fever, whose symptoms include sore throat, high fever, and a rash first broke out in Hyesan, Yanggangdo, and Shineuiju, North Pyongan Province last October, and has spread to the rest of the country. Han Myong Ho (alias) living in Chongjin, North Hamgyong Province said, "As of January, 4,000 people caught scarlet fever in Chongjin alone. The affected people were hospitalized at hospitals in Sunam." Symptoms of scarlet fever can be cured with penicillin, but hospitals which did not have stockpiles of the antibiotic just told those infected to boil water before drinking it. Furthermore, the rampant circulation of fake drugs from China may be increasing the death toll. During the early days of the outbreak, North Korean authorities stopped trains, imposed curfews, and closed schools, factories, and offices in the infected areas. Though an educational campaign on scarlet fever was launched, the shortage of medicines for the epidemic is keeping the campaign from making headway. The root causes of the outbreak are poor water and sewer systems, lack of electricity, and a collapse of the country's preventive medicine system. For example, in rural areas in the North, flush toilets are rare, and water and sewer systems are in terrible condition, leading to all kinds of wastewater running directly into rivers. Pumps often stop operating because of electricity shortages, which eventually leads to water supply problems. As a result, people often drink water from contaminated rivers. To make matters worse, vaccinations that had been given on a regular basis until the mid-1990s have stopped, which has resulted in periodic outbreaks of measles, chicken pox, paratyphoid fever, typhoid fever, cholera, foot-and-mouth disease and bird flu. Amid the epidemic are panic-stricken rumors circulating. Jeong Mi Ae (alias) living in the North said, "There is a rumor circulating that South Korean intelligent agents are spreading the diseases through the North Korea-China border since the epidemic of scarlet fever first broke out around there." ************************************************* 7. DPRK MEASLES EPIDEMIC REQUEST FOR ASSISTANCE International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), 28 February 2007 [The Federation's mission is to improve the lives of vulnerable people by mobilizing the power of humanity. It is the world's largest humanitarian organization and its millions of volunteers are active in over 185 countries.] Since November 2006, some 3,000 people in 30 counties in ten provinces within the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) have been diagnosed with measles. To date there have been four reported casualties (two children and two adults), directly due to the measles and related complications such as pneumonia and cardiac failure. Measles is a highly contagious viral infection. Measles patients suffer from a full-body skin rash that first appears on the face gradually spreading to the trunk and extremities. The skin rash is preceded by common cold or flu-like symptoms. As of 27 February, some 1,013 measles patients have been admitted to various local health facilities throughout the country for treatment, with more people continuing to seek treatment. Confirmation of the measles outbreak was announced on 16 February at a joint meeting organized by the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH), attended by representatives from the Federation, the DPRK Red Cross Society, World Health Organization (WHO), and UNICEF. Indications of the disease were first reported in Ryanggang Province's Pujon Ri, Kimhyongjik County in November 2006. The disease was initially diagnosed as rubella, based upon clinical symptoms of patients who were first identified as having the disease on 6 November in Pujon Ri, and in some northern areas including Ryanggang Province. As the disease was unable to be contained within these areas, it has subsequently spread throughout the country. According to the country's MoPH, confirmation of the measles could only be made in the middle of February after receiving diagnostic kits from the WHO. The incidence of measles throughout the country is accompanied by a risk of an increased number of cases and the further spread of the infection to other parts of the country. A measles outbreak in a country like DPRK, where the overall health and nutritional status of the population has deteriorated in the recent past due to economic constraints and natural disasters coupled with the compromised health infrastructure, has serious consequences. The international guidelines in this situation require a nationwide measles immunization campaign, along with Vitamin A supplements, to decrease the morbidity and mortality rate of the illness. ************************************************* 8. LIVESTOCK SLAUGHTERED AFTER FOOT AND MOUTH OUTBREAK Associated Press, 8 March 2007 Impoverished North Korea has slaughtered hundreds of cows and pigs after an outbreak of foot and mouth disease, according to the World Organization for Animal Health. The outbreak occurred in January at a farm in the capital, Pyongyang, sickening 431 cows, according to a North Korean government report dated Wednesday that was posted on the Web site of the Paris-based animal health agency, known by the initials OIE. Since the outbreak, quarantine officials have killed 466 cows, including the sickened ones, as well as 2,630 pigs to prevent the spread of the disease, the North's Agricultural Ministry said. Some 100,000 animals within the 44-mile radius of the outbreak site will be vaccinated, it added. The sickened cows were imported from Tieling, China, the report said. (...) The last outbreak of foot and mouth disease in North Korea occurred in 1960, it said. The disease is not known to be a threat to humans, but it is highly contagious among other mammals. The disease affects cows, sheep, goats and other cloven-footed animals, causing blisters on the mouth and feet. ************************************************* 9. RUSSIA HINTS AT SEPARATE AID TO DPRK Yonhap News, 6 March 2007 Russia might provide North Korea with additional energy and electricity aid on a humanitarian basis, separately from that agreed upon in a recent international nuclear deal, Russia's foreign minister said Tuesday. Sergei Lavrov made the remarks after meeting with his South Korean counterpart, Song Min-soon, on how to successfully implement the Feb. 13 six-nation agreement, in which North Korea agreed to start dismantling its nuclear weapons program in return for aid. In a joint news conference, Lavrov said Russia will assume its aid liability in line with the six-party agreement, and may also send more aid to North Korea on a bilateral humanitarian basis. "The six-party talks in Beijing in February produced some important agreements and all participating parties assumed certain liabilities on that basis," he said. He also said Russia and North Korea will hold talks later this month to discuss the settlement of Pyongyang's over US$8 billion debt to Moscow. According to press reports, Russia plans to write off a large portion of the debt to help improve economic conditions in the North. (...) ************************************************* 10. EUROPEAN UNION READY TO HELP WHEN ASKED Timothy Savage & Kim Tae-kyung, Ohmy News, 28 March 2007 [Following are excerpts of an interview with Hubert Pirker, Chairman of the European Parliament Committee for Korea, which handles relations with the Korean Peninsula. Pirker, a former teacher of mathematics, was first elected to the Austrian Parliament from the Christian Democrat Party in 1990. He served in the European Parliament from 1999-2004, and was returned in February 2006. OhmyNews spoke with him at the Shilla Hotel in Seoul, where he was attending a conference to mark the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. -- Editor] Q: To start, please tell us a bit about the delegation on relations with the Korean Peninsula; when was it founded, what's its purpose, who are its members? A: Because of the importance of the relations between the EU and the Republic of Korea, in 2004 we started a new delegation especially responsible for relations with the Korean Peninsula. Years ago, we had a delegation dealing with the Republic of Korea, but it was together with relations with ASEAN. So we choose now to have a separate delegation for South Korea. The background is that we are the largest foreign investor in Korea, and we are the second largest export market for the Koreas. The members are mixed, coming from different kinds of fields, mostly well experienced with relations toward Northeast Asia. One very important member is the chairman of the delegation responsible for relations with Japan. This helps to bring together the delegations responsible for the relations between the whole Korean Peninsula and Japan. There are 24 members altogether. Q: The EU seems to adhere to strong principles regarding the North Korean problem. For instance, in the UN resolution, while supporting sanctions on North Korea, the EU wanted to exempt humanitarian aid. On the other hand, couldn't it be said that because you aren't heavily involved in the Korean problem, you have room for a broader policy? A: I think you're right. On the one side, I would say that everyone is involved in North Korea. This is the last communist gulag, with nuclear weapons. This is a very explosive, dangerous situation for the whole world. So therefore it's important to give support from the whole international community to try our best to solve the problem. Therefore we are engaged. Another point is that we were asked -- especially by our Korean friends -- to be more politically involved in solving this problem. As you mentioned, we are not part of the six-party talks; that is clear. However, if there is a necessity, and we are asked to give help, we are able to do so. We are engaged, we are doing it, because we were asked to. We are showing that we are giving help, via food security. This program means that we are helping the people themselves, and having also some control over what's going on. This is the activity undertaken by the European Union. But everything depends on the developments on the North Korean side, by the regime itself. If there is no success there will be no help. The problem for us is always the balancing of pressure on the government and help to the people. Q: Because of North Korea's own restrictions, EU countries were the only ones that were allowed to have NGO representatives resident in Pyongyang. A couple of years ago, however, North Korea kicked out most of those NGOs as well. What were the reasons behind the expulsion, and do you see any possibility of European NGOs resuming activities there in the near future? A: First I would say we are totally different situation compared with years ago. On the one side, very negative, they have nuclear weapons. So it affects both sides. The other side is that the results of the regime's development approach are very, very negative. They need help. And for us, it's a chance, I would say, to open the door for new talks. But always making clear first, there must be some changes going in the direction of a democratic way. It will take a long time, but they need to show progress on humanitarian rights, and then we can give a bit of support. As we mentioned during today's meetings, opening the door for talks is always the way to bring about a new kind of policy in such a country as North Korea. So there's a bit of hope. Q: That brings up another point, which is always the dilemma in dealing with North Korea. Europe is known for promoting international standards on such things as peace, nonproliferation, and human rights. But some critics say that engaging North Korea on the nuclear issue just legitimizes the government and ignores the human rights issue. How do you reconcile these competing priorities? A: We always want to avoid this impression. This is not the way we would like to go. First of all, we are always going the same way that the international society is going. If there are sanctions, all our countries follow the sanctions. So we show very clearly that there is a lot of pressure against this horrible government. And at the highest level -- last October, one day after the explosion, the European Parliament made a direct statement that made clear what is going on vis-?-vis North Korea, and that we are totally supporting the sanctions. But if they want to go a new way in North Korea, we would give support to the people there. This is also the way that is being pursued by international society. Q: Europe has the experience of the Helsinki process in dealing with human rights in the former Soviet bloc. Do you think such a process can also be applied in North Korea? A: Maybe. No one knows. North Korea is very different, and much more closed to outsiders. So nobody knows really the best strategy, and there is no real example we have in mind. But we try our best to solve the problems for the people living underneath this horrible regime in North Korea. And so, I think, there is a bit of a chance to open the door for a new way. I hope we can use it in the interest of the whole region, and the world. But it depends on the North. Q: South Korea, China, the USA, and Japan all obviously have very strong interests in the North Korean nuclear issue, which can make solving the problem more difficult. The EU on the contrary seems in a strong position to play a mediating role, but thus far hasn't done so. Is there any thought of actively stepping forward in the future? A: I think so. We are a bit more active in this process. We could act more or less as a facilitator if the Koreans ask us to facilitate, because we are as good a friend today as the Americans, for example. They are strongly involved, and have changed their line now. But the European Union is more or less on a softer way -- with the experiences we have within the union, regarding our relations between the different member states and third countries. So maybe the experience we have in Europe could give a bit of help, if there is a need and if we are asked. (...) ************************************************* RESOURCES ************************************************* 11. FAMINE IN NORTH KOREA: MARKETS, AID AND REFORM Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland, 30 March 2007 [Following are three excerpts from the introduction to a recently published book by Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland, entitled "Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid and Reform," with a preface by Nobel laureate Amartya Sen. The book provides a comprehensive overview of the political economy of North Korea from 1990 to the present, divided into three parts: a discussion of the origins of the famine; a review of the politics and economics of the humanitarian aid effort; and a discussion of the marketization of the economy and the reform efforts of 2002. Further information can be found at: http://www.columbia.edu/cu/cup/catalog/data/023114/0231140002.HTM] ON THE ORIGINS OF THE FAMINE AND DISTRIBUTIONAL ISSUES: To [assess the impact of overall food availability on the onset of the famine], we construct food balance sheets for the country from 1990 to the present. We approach this task with the caution -- and warnings -- that it deserves, but the underlying purpose is to assess the overall availability of food from all sources and the shortfall between different estimates of supply and demand. To what extent have North Korea's food problems been the result of a decline in overall food availability, and what is the ultimate source of that food availability decline? To what extent can North Korea's problems be traced to the distribution of food? The evidence with respect to food availability is mixed; the country certainly experienced a decline in production and under some assumptions about demand, North Korea's famine could be treated as a classic food availability problem. But we also show that with some important adjustments -- such as maintaining the ability to import food on commercial terms or aggressively seeking humanitarian assistance -- the government could have avoided the worst of the great famine and the shortages that continue to this day. Indeed, we argue that in an increasingly integrated global market for basic foodstuffs, "food availability" must be seen in an open-economy context. If internal food availability declines, but external sources of supply are available, then we have really identified a new sort of entitlement problem. Why do donors fail to respond to manifest need? Even more perplexing, why do governments not avail themselves of external sources of supply available through trade or aid? A disturbing finding from this balance sheet exercise is that as humanitarian assistance responded to the crisis, commercial imports of food fell. Rather than using humanitarian assistance as an addition to supply, the government used it largely as balance of payments support, offsetting aid by cutting commercial food imports, and allocating the savings to other priorities. Again, these findings cast particular doubt on arguments that food shortages after 1995 could be attributed to a decline in domestic food availability alone. In Chapter Three, we turn our attention to the system of socialist entitlements in more detail: the complex problem of who had -- and who lost -- access to food during the great famine. North Korea is a surprisingly urbanized country, a result of the regime's emphasis on heavy industrialization. Between 60 and 70 percent of the North Korean population depended on the PDS, and we show the importance of regional, urban-rural and occupational differences in access to food. The regions directly affected by the floods of 1995 certainly suffered shortages, but so did remote mountain areas of the north and the industrial cities of the East Coast. In contrast to famines elsewhere in the world, North Korea's was an urban as well as rural phenomenon. Pyongyang -- the seat of government and of the ruling elite -- was at least relatively protected. These regional differences -- and information suggesting that certain parts of the country were cut off from both aid and domestic distribution -- suggest strongly that political decisions about distribution played an important role in the famine. We review a number of possible reasons why the government responded to the pattern of shortfalls as it did. While we find no evidence that particular segments of the population were deliberately starved -- as was the case in the Ukraine under Stalin (Conquest 1986) and Cambodia under Pol Pot (Short 2004) -- there is evidence that informational failures and the lack of accountability characteristic of authoritarian regimes played a crucial role. ON AID AND DIVERSION: The question of monitoring is closely related to the third rail of humanitarian assistance: the perennial problem of diversion of aid to unintended purposes and undeserving recipients (Chapter Five). We argue that the term "diversion" is used casually and in fact encompasses several quite different phenomena. The most common image is of the military seizing grain to feed the army and party cadre. But the political and military elite has a variety of channels for accessing food, including "first draw" on the domestic harvest, access to unmonitored imports from China and South Korea, and access to grain via the market. This type of large-scale centralized diversion no doubt occurs, but is almost certainly exaggerated. Much less attention has been given to the effect of the huge differences between controlled and market prices on the incentive to divert food for economic reasons: to sell it in the market. These incentives operate with respect to farmers, who can earn more by selling to the market than surrendering grain to the state. They operate with respect to those with access to imports and they almost certainly operate with respect to aid as well. This aspect of diversion is almost certainly underestimated in standard accounts, and its effects are not straightforward. There is no question that such diversion reduces the amount of food going to intended beneficiaries. But ironically it also has the unintended, and presumably positive, long-term consequence of promoting the marketization of the economy and even lowering prices; in our discussion of reform, we consider who the winners and losers were from this process of diversion and marketization. ON THE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF THE FAMINE ON THE REFORM PROCESS: In Chapter Seven, we return to the domestic front by looking at the government's response to the immediate aftermath of the famine. On the one hand, the government sought to reassert control over a country that had come apart during the great famine. On the other hand, the coping strategies that households pursued during the famine produced fundamental changes in the political economy of North Korea, including extensive marketization. The emergence of markets is often associated with leadership decisions and top-down reforms, such as those launched in China in the late 1970s and that finally came to North Korea 25 years later in 2002. Rather, we argue that marketization can be traced in part to the coping strategies of local party, government, and military units together with individual enterprises and households. As the public distribution system collapsed and the market came to supply a greater and greater share of total consumption, a new divide appeared in North Korean society between those who could augment their wages with foreign exchange and other sources of income, and those who could not. A "new poor" emerged as a result, with the cities once again being among the most severely affected. Marketization struck fear into the hearts of political authorities who saw it as the opening wedge for the emergence of an economy and private sphere beyond the clutches of the state. We interpret the reforms of 2002 not simply as a progressive effort to move the North Korean economy in a new direction, but also as a defensive move designed to reassert control. Whatever the intent of the reforms, however, they resulted in very high levels of inflation. Food prices rose far faster than nominal wages, resulting in a sharp decline in the welfare of those forced to purchase food in the market. Farmers probably benefited from this change in relative prices, but the result was to exacerbate the stark division we have noted between haves and have-nots. What effect did marketization and the reforms have on welfare in North Korea? The same patterns of secrecy and obstruction that have hampered the implementation of relief activities militate against the evaluation of their effectiveness as well. We can, however, evaluate the four UN-sponsored nutrition surveys that have been done to date, as well as a variety of other sorts of evidence that has not been fully exploited in this context, including refugee interviews, and data on prices. We conclude Chapter Seven by using this information -- sketchy as it is -- as a guide to where North Korea stood ten years after the famine of the mid-1990s and roughly five years into the reforms. We find that as of 2005, there had been some marginal improvement in nutritional status since the peak of the famine. However, there is also considerable cross-regional variation in nutritional status, and ample evidence that this major humanitarian disaster was by no means over. ************************************************* End CanKor # 279 ************************************************* PLEASE NOTE: Until we are able to update the www.CanKor.ca website, readers are advised that this and previous issues of the CanKor Report may be found at http://www.nautilus.org/pipermail/cankor/. To subscribe or unsubscribe, please go to the following web address: http://www.nautilus.org/mailman/listinfo/cankor. CanKor is a reader-supported e-publication and website. 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