Cankor Report #279

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CanKor # 279

Friday, 30 March 2007
*************************************************

The DPRK expresses its annual objection to the annual USA-ROK military 
manoeuvres, which Pyongyang sees as aggressive rather than defensive. 
Threats that they could derail progress in the Six-Party Talks seem 
gratuitous in view of the fact that the talks are currently in recess 
and unlikely to reconvene before the end of the military exercizes.

The Subcommittee on International Human Rights of the Canadian House 
of Commons passes a private member resolution calling on Japan to 
apologize for its treatment of "comfort women" during World War II and 
compensate the victims. This follows similar moves in the USA and 
Germany.

This week's CanKor FOCUS examines the humanitarian issues that have 
resurfaced in the DPRK. Among these are a measles epidemic, a foot and 
mouth outbreak, and food shortages the UN estimates at close to a 
million metric tons. The United Nations World Food Programme says that 
the DPRK is asking for international assistance, just two years after 
it had declared itself no longer in need of food aid. The ROK resumes 
shipments of blankets, disinfectants, fertilizer, cement and rice. 
Russia and the EU have independently indicated a willingness to supply 
humanitarian aid.

In our RESOURCES section, Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland introduce 
to CanKor readers their new book, entitled "Famine in North Korea: 
Markets, Aid and Reform."
*************************************************

Contents:

1.   DPRK ASSAILS ROK-USA JOINT MILITARY MANEUVERS
     http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2007/200703/news03/23.htm#2

2.   MILITARY EXERCIZES COULD AFFECT SIX-PARTY TALKS
     http://en.rian.ru/world/20070326/62607726.html

3.   CANADIAN PARLIAMENTARIANS SEEK TO CENSURE JAPAN
     http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200703/200703300007.html

FOCUS: Humanitarian concerns resurface in DPRK

4.   DPRK PLEADS FOR UN FOOD ASSISTANCE
     http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070329.FOOD29/TPStory/TPInternational/Asia/

5.   ROK RESUMES AID SHIPMENTS TO DPRK
     http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200703/200703290023.html

6.   EPIDEMICS ON THE RISE IN NORTH KOREA
     http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?biid=2007013113448

7.   DPRK MEASLES EPIDEMIC REQUEST FOR ASSISTANCE
     http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/JBRN-6YUJTX?OpenDocument

8.   LIVESTOCK SLAUGHTERED AFTER FOOT AND MOUTH OUTBREAK
     http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-NKorea-Cattle.html

9.   RUSSIA HINTS AT SEPARATE AID TO DPRK
     http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/Engnews/20070306/630000000020070306224345E2.html

10.  EUROPEAN UNION READY TO HELP WHEN ASKED
     http://english.ohmynews.com/ArticleView/article_view.asp?menu=A11100&no=352812&rel_no=1&back_url

RESOURCES

11.  FAMINE IN NORTH KOREA: MARKETS, AID AND REFORM
     Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland introduce their new book to
CanKor readers.
*************************************************

1.   DPRK ASSAILS ROK-USA JOINT MILITARY MANEUVERS
     Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), 22 March 2007

A spokesman for the DPRK Foreign Ministry gave the following answer to 
the question put by KCNA on March 22 as regards the projected 
USA-south Korea RSOI and Foal Eagle joint military exercises:

As already reported, the USA and south Korea are going to stage RSOI 
and Foal Eagle joint military exercises across south Korea from March 
25. These are very dangerous provocations casting shadow over the 
implementation of an agreement adopted with much effort at the 
six-party talks on February 13 and the progress of the talks.

The DPRK cannot but suspect an ulterior aim sought by the US and the 
south Korean authorities in talking about the "reconciliation and 
improved relations," "peace and stability" while planning to stage the 
large-scale military exercises targeted against the dialogue partner.

Dialogue and saber-rattling cannot go together. The US and south 
Korean war-like forces will be wholly responsible for all the adverse 
consequences to be entailed by their provocative military actions.
*************************************************

2.   MILITARY EXERCIZES COULD AFFECT SIX-PARTY TALKS
     RIA Novosti News Agency, 26 March 2007

Joint USA-South Korea military exercises could have serious 
consequences for the six-nation nuclear disarmament talks on the 
Korean peninsula, a North Korean newspaper said Monday.

The United States and South Korea have been conducting joint staff 
exercises named RSOI (Reception, Staging, Onward Movement and 
Integration) since March 25. The exercises will be combined with 
large-scale maneuvers Toksuri -- Foal Eagle, traditionally seen by 
Pyongyang as a war rehearsal on the Korean peninsula.

An article published in Nodong Sinmun said that North Korea could no 
longer trust the United States and was being forced to fully prepare 
for any scenario. According to the newspaper, the preparations will 
include building up military containment forces. (...)
*************************************************

3.   CANADIAN PARLIAMENTARIANS SEEK TO CENSURE JAPAN
     Chosun Ilbo, 30 March 2007

A chorus of voices vehemently criticizing the Japanese government for 
its denial of responsibility for the sexual enslavement of women 
during World War II has been raised around the world. Following moves 
by the USA, Germany and Canada have condemned the denials and called 
for action.

The Canadian Parliament is pushing for the passage of a resolution 
calling for Japan to apologize for its "comfort women" atrocities and 
compensate the victims. The bill was submitted by New Democratic Party 
Rep. Wayne Marston. A motion passed Tuesday in a vote of four to three 
by the Subcommittee on International Human Rights under the Committee 
on Foreign Affairs and International Development of the Canadian House 
of Commons. Marston said, "Prime Minister Abe must be pressured to 
formally apologize and to institute a program to compensate the 50,000 
to 200,000 women who were forced to serve in military brothels during 
World War II."

The German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung criticized Abe on Wednesday for 
openly denying the responsibility of the Imperial Japanese Army in 
enslaving women. In a column entitled "Historisches Versaeumnis 
(Historical Omission)," the newspaper accused Abe of making a 
calculated bid to recover from a loss of public confidence after 
suffering internal setbacks. The column says Abe seems to believe that 
although his statements may rub salt in the wounds of the former 
comfort women, he could perhaps win support from the Japanese people 
for his nationalistic stance.

Meanwhile, the latest issue of the Asian edition of Newsweek magazine 
includes a column that downplays Japan's wartime atrocities. The 
article by right-wing Japanese historian Hideaki Kase says, "US Army 
records in 1944 explicitly declare that the comfort women were 
prostitutes." Yonhap News reported that Newsweek has been inundated 
with mail and phone calls from readers calling for the dismissal of 
its editor or a boycott of the magazine.

A report filed by the US Office of Strategic Services (OSS) in May 
1945 states that 25 Korean women who escaped from a Japanese military 
unit in Kunming, China, and surrendered to the Chinese Army, had 
become sex slaves "apparently under compulsion and misrepresentation." 
Kase seems to have disregarded the full context of the report and 
deliberately distorted the facts by claiming Korean women volunteered 
to serve as comfort women.

The Japanese daily Mainichi Shimbun reported Thursday that Abe has 
been trying to move past the comfort women issue but has been 
unsuccessful because his associates, including Deputy Chief Cabinet 
Secretary Hakubun Shimomura, keep making provocative remarks.
*************************************************

FOCUS: Humanitarian concerns resurface in DPRK

*************************************************

4.   DPRK PLEADS FOR UN FOOD ASSISTANCE
     Geoffrey York, Globe and Mail, 29 March 2007

For the first time since its catastrophic famine of the mid-1990s, 
North Korea is admitting that it has a severe food shortage and needs 
help from the outside world. The request for help is a humiliating 
step for the secretive nuclear-armed nation. Just two years ago, North 
Korea announced that it was self-sufficient and didn't need any 
further aid from the United Nations food agency. But now it has 
abruptly reversed itself and acknowledged a serious shortage. In 
meetings in Pyongyang this week, North Korean officials asked for
greater assistance from the UN's World Food Programme. For the first 
time, they confirmed the WFP's estimate that the country's food 
shortfall -- the gap between what it produces and what its people 
need -- is about a million metric tons.

"The food situation is deteriorating," said Tony Banbury, the WFP's 
regional director for Asia, after returning from a five-day visit to 
the isolated Stalinist country this week. "It's precarious and it's 
clearly headed in the wrong direction," he told a news conference in 
Beijing yesterday. "We're losing the fight against hunger... If donors 
do not respond to the request, millions of people are going to go 
hungry."

About half of North Korea's population of 23 million people will need 
donated food this year, yet the WFP can help only 3 per cent of the 
population because of a shortage of international aid. North Korea's 
nuclear weapons programme, which culminated in a nuclear test last 
fall, has angered many of its traditional food donors, triggering a 
sharp reduction -- 75 per cent in the past year -- in the flow of food 
aid to the country. The WFP was hoping to provide aid to 1.9 million 
North Koreans this year, but the lack of donations has forced it to 
scale back to only 700,000 people.

In the famine of the mid-1990s, up to 2.5 million North Koreans are 
believed to have perished. The food shortage today has not reached 
that level, but some observers are worried that the isolated country 
could be headed for a famine. Devastating floods last year have also 
damaged the country's food supply.

A survey in 2004 found that 37 per cent of North Korean children were 
chronically malnourished. The government has not permitted any surveys 
since then. But in their field mission this week, the WFP officials 
saw evidence of malnutrition among children in every school and 
orphanage that they visited. They also saw a severe shortage of 
tractors, fertilizers, pesticides and other modern farm technology. 
Instead of plowing their farmland with tractors, the farmers were 
using shovels to turn the land by hand, Mr. Banbury said.

The WFP believes it is highly significant that North Korea has now 
decided to ask for assistance. In a nation with an official philosophy 
of self-sufficiency, where massive resources have been diverted into 
its nuclear programme, the regime has long refused to make a formal 
request for food aid, although it has accepted large donations from 
China and South Korea.

"I think it's the first time since 1995 that they are publicly 
admitting that there is a food deficit, and certainly it's the first 
time since 1995 where they're asking for external assistance," said 
Jean-Pierre de Margerie, a Canadian aid worker who heads the WFP 
operations in North Korea. "In the North Korean environment, I think 
that's a key sign," he said. "They rarely admit there is a 
humanitarian crisis, or that they need foreign assistance. They have 
their pride."

The latest food shortage is emerging at the worst possible time of 
year, the "lean season" of the spring, when food from the fall harvest 
is depleted. Infant mortality could increase if the hunger continues, 
Mr. Banbury said. "We are far from meeting the food needs of the most 
vulnerable people."
*************************************************

5.   ROK RESUMES AID SHIPMENTS TO DPRK
     Chosun Ilbo, 29 March 2007

South Korean aid shipments to North Korea resumed in full swing after 
video reunions of separated families began on Tuesday. The government 
sent 60,000 blankets to North Korea on Wednesday. The shipment of 
blankets, part of a flood relief campaign, was halted after Pyongyang 
conducted a nuclear test last October.

The shipment also included 11 other relief items including 
disinfectants for the prevention of foot-and-mouth disease. Some 
15,000 tons of rice and 70,000 tons of cement will go north next 
month.

A ship carrying 6,500 tons of fertilizer left Yeosu port for North 
Korea on Wednesday, part of 300,000 tons of fertilizer due to be sent 
to the North by late June. The provision of fertilizer will cost W108 
billion (US$1=W939) including freight fees. North Korea asked the 
South Korean Red Cross to offer fertilizer aid on March 7.

The government will provide North Korea with some W3.5 billion of 
materials and W400 million in cash for the construction of a family 
reunion center equipped with video facilities. Originally the South 
was supposed to provide LCD monitors for the center, but the USA has 
banned shipments of LCD monitors to North Korea, so the cash will go 
to buying LCD monitors from China.

The two sides will discuss when and how 400,000 tons of rice worth 
W200 billion will be sent across the border at a meeting of the 
Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Committee which will open in 
Pyongyang on April 18.
*************************************************

6.   EPIDEMICS ON THE RISE IN NORTH KOREA
     Donga Ilbo, 31 January 2007

Infectious diseases such as scarlet fever and measles are on the rise 
in North Korea, according to recent reports, adding to the severe 
economic hardships North Koreans are suffering. North Koreans 
interviewed by the Dong-A Ilbo said that the North Korean authorities 
are sitting on their hands and not moving quickly to handle the 
outbreak of the diseases in Pyongyang and provincial areas due to a 
lack of medicine. Scarlet fever, whose symptoms include sore throat, 
high fever, and a rash first broke out in Hyesan, Yanggangdo, and 
Shineuiju, North Pyongan Province last October, and has spread to the 
rest of the country.

Han Myong Ho (alias) living in Chongjin, North Hamgyong Province said, 
"As of January, 4,000 people caught scarlet fever in Chongjin alone. 
The affected people were hospitalized at hospitals in Sunam." Symptoms 
of scarlet fever can be cured with penicillin, but hospitals which did 
not have stockpiles of the antibiotic just told those infected to boil 
water before drinking it. Furthermore, the rampant circulation of fake 
drugs from China may be increasing the death toll.

During the early days of the outbreak, North Korean authorities 
stopped trains, imposed curfews, and closed schools, factories, and 
offices in the infected areas. Though an educational campaign on 
scarlet fever was launched, the shortage of medicines for the epidemic 
is keeping the campaign from making headway.

The root causes of the outbreak are poor water and sewer systems, lack 
of electricity, and a collapse of the country's preventive medicine 
system. For example, in rural areas in the North, flush toilets are 
rare, and water and sewer systems are in terrible condition, leading 
to all kinds of wastewater running directly into rivers. Pumps often 
stop operating because of electricity shortages, which eventually 
leads to water supply problems. As a result, people often drink water 
from contaminated rivers. To make matters worse, vaccinations that had 
been given on a regular basis until the mid-1990s have stopped, which 
has resulted in periodic outbreaks of measles, chicken pox, 
paratyphoid fever, typhoid fever, cholera, foot-and-mouth disease and 
bird flu.

Amid the epidemic are panic-stricken rumors circulating. Jeong Mi Ae 
(alias) living in the North said, "There is a rumor circulating that 
South Korean intelligent agents are spreading the diseases through the 
North Korea-China border since the epidemic of scarlet fever first 
broke out around there."
*************************************************

7.   DPRK MEASLES EPIDEMIC REQUEST FOR ASSISTANCE
     International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies
(IFRC), 28 February 2007

[The Federation's mission is to improve the lives of vulnerable people 
by mobilizing the power of humanity. It is the world's largest 
humanitarian organization and its millions of volunteers are active in 
over 185 countries.]

Since November 2006, some 3,000 people in 30 counties in ten provinces 
within the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) have been 
diagnosed with measles. To date there have been four reported 
casualties (two children and two adults), directly due to the measles 
and related complications such as pneumonia and cardiac failure.

Measles is a highly contagious viral infection. Measles patients 
suffer from a full-body skin rash that first appears on the face 
gradually spreading to the trunk and extremities. The skin rash is 
preceded by common cold or flu-like symptoms. As of 27 February, some 
1,013 measles patients have been admitted to various local health 
facilities throughout the country for treatment, with more people 
continuing to seek treatment. Confirmation of the measles outbreak was 
announced on 16 February at a joint meeting organized by the Ministry 
of Public Health (MoPH), attended by representatives from the 
Federation, the DPRK Red Cross Society, World Health Organization 
(WHO), and UNICEF.

Indications of the disease were first reported in Ryanggang Province's 
Pujon Ri, Kimhyongjik County in November 2006. The disease was 
initially diagnosed as rubella, based upon clinical symptoms of 
patients who were first identified as having the disease on 6 November 
in Pujon Ri, and in some northern areas including Ryanggang Province. 
As the disease was unable to be contained within these areas, it has 
subsequently spread throughout the country. According to the country's 
MoPH, confirmation of the measles could only be made in the middle of 
February after receiving diagnostic kits from the WHO.

The incidence of measles throughout the country is accompanied by a 
risk of an increased number of cases and the further spread of the 
infection to other parts of the country. A measles outbreak in a 
country like DPRK, where the overall health and nutritional status of 
the population has deteriorated in the recent past due to economic 
constraints and natural disasters coupled with the compromised health 
infrastructure, has serious consequences. The international guidelines 
in this situation require a nationwide measles immunization campaign, 
along with Vitamin A supplements, to decrease the morbidity and 
mortality rate of the illness.
*************************************************

8.   LIVESTOCK SLAUGHTERED AFTER FOOT AND MOUTH OUTBREAK
     Associated Press, 8 March 2007

Impoverished North Korea has slaughtered hundreds of cows and pigs 
after an outbreak of foot and mouth disease, according to the World 
Organization for Animal Health. The outbreak occurred in January at a 
farm in the capital, Pyongyang, sickening 431 cows, according to a 
North Korean government report dated Wednesday that was posted on the 
Web site of the Paris-based animal health agency, known by the 
initials OIE.

Since the outbreak, quarantine officials have killed 466 cows, 
including the sickened ones, as well as 2,630 pigs to prevent the 
spread of the disease, the North's Agricultural Ministry said. Some 
100,000 animals within the 44-mile radius of the outbreak site will be 
vaccinated, it added. The sickened cows were imported from Tieling, 
China, the report said. (...)

The last outbreak of foot and mouth disease in North Korea occurred in 
1960, it said. The disease is not known to be a threat to humans, but 
it is highly contagious among other mammals. The disease affects cows, 
sheep, goats and other cloven-footed animals, causing blisters on the 
mouth and feet.
*************************************************

9.   RUSSIA HINTS AT SEPARATE AID TO DPRK
     Yonhap News, 6 March 2007

Russia might provide North Korea with additional energy and 
electricity aid on a humanitarian basis, separately from that agreed 
upon in a recent international nuclear deal, Russia's foreign minister 
said Tuesday. Sergei Lavrov made the remarks after meeting with his 
South Korean counterpart, Song Min-soon, on how to successfully 
implement the Feb. 13 six-nation agreement, in which North Korea 
agreed to start dismantling its nuclear weapons program in return for 
aid. In a joint news conference, Lavrov said Russia will assume its 
aid liability in line with the six-party agreement, and may also send 
more aid to North Korea on a bilateral humanitarian basis.

"The six-party talks in Beijing in February produced some important 
agreements and all participating parties assumed certain liabilities 
on that basis," he said. He also said Russia and North Korea will hold 
talks later this month to discuss the settlement of Pyongyang's over 
US$8 billion debt to Moscow. According to press reports, Russia plans 
to write off a large portion of the debt to help improve economic 
conditions in the North. (...)
*************************************************

10.  EUROPEAN UNION READY TO HELP WHEN ASKED
     Timothy Savage & Kim Tae-kyung, Ohmy News, 28 March 2007

[Following are excerpts of an interview with Hubert Pirker, Chairman 
of the European Parliament Committee for Korea, which handles 
relations with the Korean Peninsula. Pirker, a former teacher of 
mathematics, was first elected to the Austrian Parliament from the 
Christian Democrat Party in 1990. He served in the European Parliament 
from 1999-2004, and was returned in February 2006. OhmyNews spoke with 
him at the Shilla Hotel in Seoul, where he was attending a conference 
to mark the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. -- Editor]

Q: To start, please tell us a bit about the delegation on relations 
with the Korean Peninsula; when was it founded, what's its purpose, 
who are its members?

A: Because of the importance of the relations between the EU and the 
Republic of Korea, in 2004 we started a new delegation especially 
responsible for relations with the Korean Peninsula. Years ago, we had 
a delegation dealing with the Republic of Korea, but it was together 
with relations with ASEAN. So we choose now to have a separate 
delegation for South Korea. The background is that we are the largest 
foreign investor in Korea, and we are the second largest export market 
for the Koreas. The members are mixed, coming from different kinds of 
fields, mostly well experienced with relations toward Northeast Asia. 
One very important member is the chairman of the delegation 
responsible for relations with Japan. This helps to bring together the 
delegations responsible for the relations between the whole Korean 
Peninsula and Japan. There are 24 members altogether.

Q: The EU seems to adhere to strong principles regarding the North 
Korean problem. For instance, in the UN resolution, while supporting 
sanctions on North Korea, the EU wanted to exempt humanitarian aid. On 
the other hand, couldn't it be said that because you aren't heavily 
involved in the Korean problem, you have room for a broader policy?

A: I think you're right. On the one side, I would say that everyone is 
involved in North Korea. This is the last communist gulag, with 
nuclear weapons. This is a very explosive, dangerous situation for the 
whole world. So therefore it's important to give support from the 
whole international community to try our best to solve the problem. 
Therefore we are engaged. Another point is that we were asked --  
especially by our Korean friends -- to be more politically involved in 
solving this problem. As you mentioned, we are not part of the 
six-party talks; that is clear. However, if there is a necessity, and 
we are asked to give help, we are able to do so. We are engaged, we 
are doing it, because we were asked to. We are showing that we are 
giving help, via food security. This program means that we are helping 
the people themselves, and having also some control over what's going 
on. This is the activity undertaken by the European Union. But 
everything depends on the developments on the North Korean side, by 
the regime itself. If there is no success there will be no help. The 
problem for us is always the balancing of pressure on the government 
and help to the people.

Q: Because of North Korea's own restrictions, EU countries were the 
only ones that were allowed to have NGO representatives resident in 
Pyongyang. A couple of years ago, however, North Korea kicked out most 
of those NGOs as well. What were the reasons behind the expulsion, and 
do you see any possibility of European NGOs resuming activities there 
in the near future?

A: First I would say we are totally different situation compared with 
years ago. On the one side, very negative, they have nuclear weapons. 
So it affects both sides. The other side is that the results of the 
regime's development approach are very, very negative. They need help. 
And for us, it's a chance, I would say, to open the door for new 
talks. But always making clear first, there must be some changes going 
in the direction of a democratic way. It will take a long time, but 
they need to show progress on humanitarian rights, and then we can 
give a bit of support. As we mentioned during today's meetings, 
opening the door for talks is always the way to bring about a new kind 
of policy in such a country as North Korea. So there's a bit of hope.

Q: That brings up another point, which is always the dilemma in 
dealing with North Korea. Europe is known for promoting international 
standards on such things as peace, nonproliferation, and human rights. 
But some critics say that engaging North Korea on the nuclear issue 
just legitimizes the government and ignores the human rights issue. 
How do you reconcile these competing priorities?

A: We always want to avoid this impression. This is not the way we 
would like to go. First of all, we are always going the same way that 
the international society is going. If there are sanctions, all our 
countries follow the sanctions. So we show very clearly that there is 
a lot of pressure against this horrible government. And at the highest 
level -- last October, one day after the explosion, the European 
Parliament made a direct statement that made clear what is going on 
vis-à-vis North Korea, and that we are totally supporting the 
sanctions. But if they want to go a new way in North Korea, we would 
give support to the people there. This is also the way that is being 
pursued by international society.

Q: Europe has the experience of the Helsinki process in dealing with 
human rights in the former Soviet bloc. Do you think such a process 
can also be applied in North Korea?

A: Maybe. No one knows. North Korea is very different, and much more 
closed to outsiders. So nobody knows really the best strategy, and 
there is no real example we have in mind. But we try our best to solve 
the problems for the people living underneath this horrible regime in 
North Korea. And so, I think, there is a bit of a chance to open the 
door for a new way. I hope we can use it in the interest of the whole 
region, and the world. But it depends on the North.

Q: South Korea, China, the USA, and Japan all obviously have very 
strong interests in the North Korean nuclear issue, which can make 
solving the problem more difficult. The EU on the contrary seems in a 
strong position to play a mediating role, but thus far hasn't done so. 
Is there any thought of actively stepping forward in the future?

A: I think so. We are a bit more active in this process. We could act 
more or less as a facilitator if the Koreans ask us to facilitate, 
because we are as good a friend today as the Americans, for example. 
They are strongly involved, and have changed their line now. But the 
European Union is more or less on a softer way -- with the experiences 
we have within the union, regarding our relations between the 
different member states and third countries. So maybe the experience 
we have in Europe could give a bit of help, if there is a need and if 
we are asked. (...)
*************************************************

RESOURCES

*************************************************

11.  FAMINE IN NORTH KOREA: MARKETS, AID AND REFORM
     Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland, 30 March 2007

[Following are three excerpts from the introduction to a recently 
published book by Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland, entitled "Famine 
in North Korea: Markets, Aid and Reform," with a preface by Nobel 
laureate Amartya Sen. The book provides a comprehensive overview of 
the political economy of North Korea from 1990 to the present, divided 
into three parts: a discussion of the origins of the famine; a review 
of the politics and economics of the humanitarian aid effort; and a 
discussion of the marketization of the economy and the reform efforts 
of 2002. Further information can be found at: 
http://www.columbia.edu/cu/cup/catalog/data/023114/0231140002.HTM]

ON THE ORIGINS OF THE FAMINE AND DISTRIBUTIONAL ISSUES:

To [assess the impact of overall food availability on the onset of the 
famine], we construct food balance sheets for the country from 1990 to 
the present. We approach this task with the caution -- and warnings --  
that it deserves, but the underlying purpose is to assess the overall 
availability of food from all sources and the shortfall between 
different estimates of supply and demand. To what extent have North 
Korea's food problems been the result of a decline in overall food 
availability, and what is the ultimate source of that food 
availability decline? To what extent can North Korea's problems be 
traced to the distribution of food?

The evidence with respect to food availability is mixed; the country 
certainly experienced a decline in production and under some 
assumptions about demand, North Korea's famine could be treated as a 
classic food availability problem. But we also show that with some 
important adjustments -- such as maintaining the ability to import 
food on commercial terms or aggressively seeking humanitarian 
assistance -- the government could have avoided the worst of the great 
famine and the shortages that continue to this day. Indeed, we argue 
that in an increasingly integrated global market for basic foodstuffs, 
"food availability" must be seen in an open-economy context. If 
internal food availability declines, but external sources of supply 
are available, then we have really identified a new sort of 
entitlement problem. Why do donors fail to respond to manifest need? 
Even more perplexing, why do governments not avail themselves of 
external sources of supply available through trade or aid?

A disturbing finding from this balance sheet exercise is that as 
humanitarian assistance responded to the crisis, commercial imports of 
food fell. Rather than using humanitarian assistance as an addition to 
supply, the government used it largely as balance of payments support, 
offsetting aid by cutting commercial food imports, and allocating the 
savings to other priorities. Again, these findings cast particular 
doubt on arguments that food shortages after 1995 could be attributed 
to a decline in domestic food availability alone.

In Chapter Three, we turn our attention to the system of socialist 
entitlements in more detail: the complex problem of who had -- and who 
lost -- access to food during the great famine. North Korea is a 
surprisingly urbanized country, a result of the regime's emphasis on 
heavy industrialization. Between 60 and 70 percent of the North Korean 
population depended on the PDS, and we show the importance of 
regional, urban-rural and occupational differences in access to food. 
The regions directly affected by the floods of 1995 certainly suffered 
shortages, but so did remote mountain areas of the north and the 
industrial cities of the East Coast. In contrast to famines elsewhere 
in the world, North Korea's was an urban as well as rural phenomenon. 
Pyongyang -- the seat of government and of the ruling elite -- was at
least relatively protected.

These regional differences -- and information suggesting that certain 
parts of the country were cut off from both aid and domestic 
distribution -- suggest strongly that political decisions about 
distribution played an important role in the famine. We review a 
number of possible reasons why the government responded to the pattern 
of shortfalls as it did. While we find no evidence that particular 
segments of the population were deliberately starved -- as was the 
case in the Ukraine under Stalin (Conquest 1986) and Cambodia under 
Pol Pot (Short 2004) -- there is evidence that informational failures 
and the lack of accountability characteristic of authoritarian regimes 
played a crucial role.

ON AID AND DIVERSION:

The question of monitoring is closely related to the third rail of 
humanitarian assistance: the perennial problem of diversion of aid to 
unintended purposes and undeserving recipients (Chapter Five). We 
argue that the term "diversion" is used casually and in fact 
encompasses several quite different phenomena. The most common image 
is of the military seizing grain to feed the army and party cadre. But 
the political and military elite has a variety of channels for 
accessing food, including "first draw" on the domestic harvest, access 
to unmonitored imports from China and South Korea, and access to grain 
via the market. This type of large-scale centralized diversion no 
doubt occurs, but is almost certainly exaggerated.

Much less attention has been given to the effect of the huge 
differences between controlled and market prices on the incentive to 
divert food for economic reasons: to sell it in the market. These 
incentives operate with respect to farmers, who can earn more by 
selling to the market than surrendering grain to the state. They 
operate with respect to those with access to imports and they almost 
certainly operate with respect to aid as well. This aspect of 
diversion is almost certainly underestimated in standard accounts, and 
its effects are not straightforward. There is no question that such 
diversion reduces the amount of food going to intended beneficiaries. 
But ironically it also has the unintended, and presumably positive, 
long-term consequence of promoting the marketization of the economy 
and even lowering prices; in our discussion of reform, we consider who 
the winners and losers were from this process of diversion and 
marketization.

ON THE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF THE FAMINE ON THE REFORM PROCESS:

In Chapter Seven, we return to the domestic front by looking at the 
government's response to the immediate aftermath of the famine. On the 
one hand, the government sought to reassert control over a country 
that had come apart during the great famine. On the other hand, the 
coping strategies that households pursued during the famine produced 
fundamental changes in the political economy of North Korea, including 
extensive marketization.

The emergence of markets is often associated with leadership decisions 
and top-down reforms, such as those launched in China in the late 
1970s and that finally came to North Korea 25 years later in 2002. 
Rather, we argue that marketization can be traced in part to the 
coping strategies of local party, government, and military units 
together with individual enterprises and households. As the public 
distribution system collapsed and the market came to supply a greater 
and greater share of total consumption, a new divide appeared in North 
Korean society between those who could augment their wages with 
foreign exchange and other sources of income, and those who could not. 
A "new poor" emerged as a result, with the cities once again being 
among the most severely affected.

Marketization struck fear into the hearts of political authorities who 
saw it as the opening wedge for the emergence of an economy and 
private sphere beyond the clutches of the state. We interpret the 
reforms of 2002 not simply as a progressive effort to move the North 
Korean economy in a new direction, but also as a defensive move 
designed to reassert control. Whatever the intent of the reforms, 
however, they resulted in very high levels of inflation. Food prices 
rose far faster than nominal wages, resulting in a sharp decline in 
the welfare of those forced to purchase food in the market. Farmers 
probably benefited from this change in relative prices, but the result 
was to exacerbate the stark division we have noted between haves and 
have-nots.

What effect did marketization and the reforms have on welfare in North 
Korea? The same patterns of secrecy and obstruction that have hampered 
the implementation of relief activities militate against the 
evaluation of their effectiveness as well. We can, however, evaluate 
the four UN-sponsored nutrition surveys that have been done to date, 
as well as a variety of other sorts of evidence that has not been 
fully exploited in this context, including refugee interviews, and 
data on prices. We conclude Chapter Seven by using this information --  
sketchy as it is -- as a guide to where North Korea stood ten years 
after the famine of the mid-1990s and roughly five years into the 
reforms. We find that as of 2005, there had been some marginal 
improvement in nutritional status since the peak of the famine. 
However, there is also considerable cross-regional variation in 
nutritional status, and ample evidence that this major humanitarian 
disaster was by no means over.
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End CanKor # 279

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