Global Nuclear Futures: A Japanese Perspective

Tatsujiro Suzuki [1]

Figure 1: Projection of World Nuclear Capacity Shutdown/Startup between 2005 - 2047

Description

Many existing nuclear power plants in developed countries will end their expected operating life (30-40 years) between 2010-2020. Energy utilities will thus face a decision as to whether they will re-order new nuclear power plants to replace and/or add to existing plants.

This figure is a projection of world nuclear capacity shutdown/startup between 2005 and 2047. It graphs the units operating or under construction in the world in 2005. It is estimated on the basis of 40 years of mean lifetime (32 years for Germany).

It shows capacity in MWe (left hand scale) and number of reactors (right hand scale) for the period 2005 - 2047. The capacity in MWe ranges from 7,000 (top) to -33,000 (bottom). The number of reactors ranges from 7 (top) to -33 (bottom).

The graph is broken up into ten year periods. The net decennial balance for each period is calculated. For 2005 - 2015, it is -46,708 MWe and -80 reactors. For 2015 - 2025, it is -171,323 MWe and -197 reactors. For 2025 - 2035, it is -100,570 MWe and -106 reactors. For 2035 - 2045, it is -38,212 MWe and -44 reactors. The graph trends generally downwards until 2025, and then begins to generally climb upwards.

The graph is drawn from Mycle Schneider, "World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2004 and The French Plutonium Program," Fukushima Prefecture, March 31, 2005.

Background

This figure is part of a talk given by Tatsujiro Suzuki, entitled Global Nuclear Future: A Japanese Perspective. The full text of the talk is available.

Produced by the Nautilus Institute at RMIT, Austral Peace and Security Network (APSNet). You might like to subscribe to our free bi-weekly newsletter.