Global Nuclear Futures: A Japanese Perspective

Tatsujiro Suzuki [1]

Figure 4: Japan's Plutonium Stockpile; Three Scenarios up to 2020

Description

If the Rokkasho reprocessing plant starts its full-scale operation, Japan will produce a maximum of 8 tons of plutonium annually. Japan currently has already 43 tons [37 tons in Europe, 6 tons in Japan] of plutonium stockpiled, and this amount may grow to more than 70 tons by the middle of the 2010s. In order to avoid such plutonium stockpile, deferring the operation of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant is desirable.

This figure shows three scenarios for Japan's separated plutonium: (a) and (b) assume that the Rokkasho reprocessing plant operates as planned. In (a) Plutonium stockpile in Europe is consumed first. In (b) only stockpile in Japan is consumed while stockpile in Europe is left in Europe. In (c) operation of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant is deferred.

For each of (a), (b) and (c), the left hand scale ranges from 0 (low) to 150 (high). Across the bottom, the scale shows the years from 1995 (beginning) to 2020 (end). Each shows the supply total, the demand total and the stockpile over time. They also show the stockpile in Japan and the stockpile in Europe. In all three, the demand total is shown at zero until 2011, when it begins climbing. It climbs until 2020, when it is at 90 (approx).

Part (a): Plutonium stockpile in Europe is consumed first

The supply total begins at 16 (approx) in 1995 and trends upwards until 2020, when it is just over 150. The stockpile closely follows the supply total until 2011 (approx) when it peaks at 80 (approx) and then trends downward to 65 (approx) in 2020. The stockpile in Japan stays constant at about 5 (approx) until 2006 (approx), and then it climbs until 2015 (approx) when it peaks at 75 (approx). Then it declines until 2020, when it is at 65 (approx).

The stockpile in Europe starts at about 10 or 11 (approx). It then grows, while the stockpile in Japan remains constant. When the stockpile in Japan starts to increase in 2006 (approx), the stockpile in Europe remains constant until 2011 (approx). It then reduces in size until 2015 (approx), where it disappears entirely. From 2015 (approx), the whole stockpile is in Japan.

Part (b): Plutonium stockpile in Japan is consumed while stockpile in Europe is left in Europe

The supply total begins at 16 (approx) in 1995 and trends upwards until 2020, when it is just over 150. The stockpile closely follows the supply total until 2011 (approx) when it peaks at 80 (approx) and then trends downward to 65 (approx) in 2020. The stockpile in Japan stays constant at about 5 (approx) until 2006 (approx). It then grows until 2011 (approx) when it peaks at 30 (approx). It then decreases until 2020, when it is at 20 (approx).

The stockpile in Europe starts at about 10 or 11 (approx). It then grows, while the stockpile in Japan remains constant. When the stockpile in Japan starts to increase in 2006 (approx), the stockpile in Europe remains constant until 2020.

Part (c): Operation of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant is deferred

The supply total begins at 16 (approx) in 1995 and trends upwards until 2010 (approx), when it levels off. It remains level until 2020. The stockpile closely follows the supply total until 2011 (approx), when it declines until 2016. At 2016, the stockpile is zero.

The stockpile in Japan stays constant at about 5 (approx) until 2011 (approx), when it disappears. The stockpile in Europe grows until 2011, when it peaks at 50 (approx). It then declines until 2016. By 2016, there is no stockpile remaining.

The figure is drawn from: T. Katsuta, T. Suzuki, "Japan's Civilian Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Nuclear Spent Fuel Management Issue," International Panel on Fissile Material (IPFM) Report (Draft), August 2006.

Background

This figure is part of a talk given by Tatsujiro Suzuki, entitled Global Nuclear Future: A Japanese Perspective. The full text of the talk is available.

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